Well there's nothing new in this but here are my thoughts:
They're pushing the line that the Rett IIb results are "statistically significant and clinically meaningful" and RSBQ pretty hard. While you expect a certain level of spin from any company, this is clearly the line they're pushing. They're comparitively circumspect about the previous trials.
While I've personally written it off for now, it looks like TBI is still in with a remote chance. Given the way the share price got crunched on the TBI results, they could have just dropped it completely because that's clearly what the market thinks. I still rate the chances of a second TBI trial as low, and it would take 5 years to translate into anything meaninful, but would be valuable as a show of confidence in trof if it happened. But it would be nice to know just how meaningful these ongoing discussions are.
On another note, it took 4 months after the last Rett results for the BT decision to be announced. On a similar timeline this year that puts us at end July. So while I view it as unlikely (BT is VERY hard to get) we're still in the window. It may also explain why the FDA conversation will be in Q3 rather than earlier. On the other hand it seems to take 6 months for the FDA to scratch their backsides so that's when it may have been scheduled anyway.
My guess is no deal before FDA discussions. If we have a favourable outcome in terms of indicator from the FDA then that would mean a lot in terms of probability of favourable Ph III trial outcome and therefore value of company.
NEU Price at posting:
6.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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