Folks there is lots of talk about what will happen after the Scheme if it is voted down but it seems we've forgotten about another possible outcome so I'd like to throw another different perspective out there. Unfortunately in reality the majority of all Schemes of Arrangement that make it past the 1st court date/ the scheme booklet being issued are successful. So for me personally I'm not looking too far into the future just yet.
That’s not great news I know but there are plenty of reasons to not give up hope!!!
I believe Macquarie and CTP knew the scheme was in trouble and was going to be voted down hence the delay and the issuance of the Supplementary (Scare) Booklet. So from here schemes, generally, succeed in 2 ways:
1) The purchaser (Macquarie) keeps delaying the scheme and continuing their fear campaign until they swing enough people to vote for the scheme, this is what they are currently doing.
2) Failing any success of 1) often the purchaser (Macquarie) increase their offer to a point where enough shareholders will take the money and vote for the scheme.
Me, I'm hanging out for option 2), it’s a bit of a high pressure approach so may not suit everyone. But I will point out we have technology on our side these days you can change your vote at the last minute quite easily by voting online. So it is possible to vote Against the scheme and then change it at the last minute just before the online voting closes. If Macquarie do increase their offer then they will need to do so a few days before the vote is due.
Either way first things first, the Against vote needs to win.
There is the chance that Macquarie chooses to join the tiny number of unsuccessful Schemes but that’s the kind of event that can bring peoples investment banking careers to a grinding halt plus I believe they have too much money already invested in CTP and Mereenie to live with the uncertainty of dealing with a new board. But if Mac do go this way then CTP is financially safe for a few more years yet, as Cottee has recently pointed out, and I believe the proposed new board is solid enough to manage our way through that period.
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CTP Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
