day trading 05/06 pre market, page-2

FWIW

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...-down-year-after-a-start-like-2017-2017-05-31


So far so good?
On May 25, Wall Street closed the 100th trading day of 2017, with the S&P 500 having risen 7.9% over that period. That’s a strong start to a year—the fourth-best start of the past 20 years—but don’t worry if you didn’t miss the rally. According to data from LPL Financial, not only has the market never ended a year with a negative return after such a start, but such a beginning typically augurs well for gains through the rest of the year.
Since 1950, there have been 23 years, not including 2017, where the S&P rose at least 7.5% over the first 100 trading days. In all those instances, the market ended higher on the year, with an average annual gain of 23.4%. Based on where the market ended 2016, such an annual gain would mean the benchmark index SPX, +0.37% ends the year around 2,760.
“Going back to 1950, a strong start to the year for equities, coupled with low volatility, has usually led to continued strength,” Ryan Detrick, LPL’s senior market strategist, wrote in a note to clients. “In other words, history would suggest a big selloff, and a bear market starting here and now would be very rare.”
As the chart below demonstrates, there have been occasions when the market, after a gain of at least 7.5% in the first 100 days, falls between that point and the end of the year (there are roughly 250 trading days a year). Those times are rare, however, having only occurred in three of the past 23 instances. Typically, the market rises an average of 9% between where the market closed at the end of the 100th session and the end of the year.

The S&P 500 closed at 2,415.07 on May 25. A 9% gain from that level—assuming the S&P follows the historical average—would mean that it ends the year around 2,630.
Beyond the size of its rally, the first 100 trading days of 2017 were notable for how quiet they were, from the perspective of market volatility. Over the period, the S&P had an average intraday range of just 0.56%, according to LPL data, a record low, and breaking the previous record of 0.69% that occurred in 1995. It also traded in a range—from peak to trough—of 7%, the seventh-smallest such range since 1950.
LPL wrote that such stats supported the idea that 2017 was “one of the least volatile starts to a year ever.”