The hedge funds and the margin debt, not to mention the long good run in markets, point to a correction being a big one when it comes. The question as always is what and when is the substantial event that both triggers a collapse and destroys confidence that puts everything into that downward spiral. Last time the sub prime was known for a long time before Lehman and warnings were everywhere but this time there isn't a well known systemic issue. So it has to be a black swan or one of the geopolitical issues going the wrong way. If there is no event I suppose we muddle through and move sideways and slowly up. I have a healthy cash position and undrawn credit at present.
