LYC (ASX) Buying Lynas in US.

Originally posted by ContraryJ ↑

For two weeks I have been trying to buy LYSCF and Dy. I bought nothing last week. and up to yesterday nothing this week. The price has been 5% below my bid but no trades at that price. Well yesterday I bought a whopping 2,135 Shares CF A fraction of my current bid which I have cut back twice trying to stimulate some action. Usually pulling a bid or offer and putting it back out at 50% of its original volume will make people think they should trade. My original buy was only 25% of what I would like to buy. I knew a full volume bid would just make people wait above it.

Yes I can raise the price but I hate to drive the price up 15% to 20% just to watch it fall back when I am done. I am not sure that even 7c would net many shares and that is a 15% above yesterdays price. it was 5.8c a week ago when I started. I started at 6.0C

My broker will not trade in international stocks (LYC.AX ) under SP $5.00. There are exceptions but that is way out of my range. Even if I could the base per share fees are higher and there are fees like $100 per transaction foreign exchange fees, a $50 per year holding fee for foreign stocks. All on top of the usual stuff.

Major problem is that no one is trading in US because it is so ill-liquid, it is ill-liquid because no one is trading.
Next Problem DY and CF are penny stock below 10c raising fees and incuring extra fees. Fees go way up on a % basis to where they are a noticeable part of transaction. Especially if you only get 2135 shares in a week.
Lynas still has a negative PE which is looked at allot in US. Soon to change
In Us Equity per share is looked at second after PE and that is only about 2C a share. Unlikely to change much with total shares outstanding.

This problem is mainly mine, others may not agree. I believe Mt K options put a cap of 10 to 12c on LYC.AX stock till all the 5c options are exercised. Then a cap of 15C to 17C till bounds are converted. This limit makes me very aware of the down side risk compared to the upside gain. If I buy LYSCF at an average price of 7 C and the 5c options hold the LYC. AX to 10C for a year then DY sells for 8c. A penny is not much to work with, yes it is a 12.5% gain but fees cut into it. Yes the spread could be 3 or 4 cents and could have a short term peak well above that. If I buy I need a price that is stable for several weeks to sell into and I see that as capped by Mt K selling the 5 c options. There are about 350M shares at 5.0c, if MtK sells stock at 10c that's 35M of new money that would have to come into LYC.AX . Mt K still has not taken all the 3.8C options and there is a 4c + spread right now. 18M shares left of a total of about 174 M shares. MtK can change what they do at any time. High REE prices could change there thinking to the up side. Right now they appear to exercise & sell when ever there is a 5C spread over their purchase price. Until I see a change I will assume they will exercise the last 18 M at about 9C for LYC. Then start on 5C options at 10C or a little higher. Remember the bounds originally came due this September (or Sept '18?). For the last 2 years the holders have not even received interest, it was paid into restricted cash not to bound holders. I think they are much more interested in getting cash out that investing in Lynas. Time will tell.

If it was not for MTK I would gladly pay 8 or 9 cents a share DY or CF shares. The amount of new money that has to flow into LYC.AX to just cover MT K combined with dilution of PE and Equity per share just does not make it look so good if I have to go over 6.5c for DY or CF. If Mt K does not exercise the last 18M shares till 11 to 13 cents then that changes everything and I will be more aggressive about buying. In past the market has seen Mt K buying as a negative. If they buy over 11C that may be just what I need. Always great for a contrarian to have market see something the opposite of what they think.

I firmly believe the stock is going up, how much is the question. for right now I am pulling my GTC orders. Still looking for an opportunity with Lynas. but for right now I like other things better from a gain risk perspective. Structured notes are boring but much better gain /risk.

Expand

CJ, I get it that you are externalising your thinking about Lynas in your posts, but if you could summarise your thoughts in a few dot points at the beginning of the stream of consciousness stuff, you might actually generate some more discussion. eg, I think you have a fair point that the warrants and bonds will cap the SP for a while.

The amount of time you obviously spend thinking about LYC and given you seem to recon its likely to double in price - why not go get a Commsec account and just go buy a few ASX LYC at $20-30 brokerage to make the flutter meaningful?? Go on - I'm quite sure you won't over commit! If you don't, when the warrants and bonds are out of the system, Lynas has another NdPr train selling at 50% above the current price and is pumping out profits $200 M/yr - SP approaching $1 (2-3 yrs my guess) and a takeover is launched by Glencore or Seimens - I'm betting you'll kick yourself for not buying a decent packet at 8.4c!!

Congrats on that "Held" disclosure btw!

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	13835	$6.90

No.

Vol.

Price($)

13835

$6.90

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$6.93	2500	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$6.93

2500

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	13835	6.900
3	15610	6.890
5	33363	6.880
4	23308	6.870
3	16510	6.860

No.

Vol.

Price($)

13835

6.900

15610

6.890

33363

6.880

23308

6.870

16510

6.860

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.930	2500	2
6.940	4182	4
6.950	19265	4
6.960	11510	2
6.970	43260	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

6.930

2500

6.940

4182

6.950

19265

6.960

11510

6.970

43260

(20min delay)
Last $6.92		Change -0.140(1.98%)		Mkt cap ! $6.468B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$6.94	$6.97	$6.84	$15.53M	2.248M

Buying Lynas in US., page-2

Is the ASX getting its groove back? Here's 5 IPOs in September to watch

Genesis set for higher gold production in FY25 and earlier mill start

Tartana Minerals firms up producer status with recent 150tn shipment of copper sulphate to the NT

Raiden Resources jumps 11% as Andover South drilling to kick off with PoW on Minister's desk

ASX explains: How 'futures' are predicted

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Buying Lynas in US., page-2

Top Stories

Is the ASX getting its groove back? Here's 5 IPOs in September to watch

Genesis set for higher gold production in FY25 and earlier mill start

Tartana Minerals firms up producer status with recent 150tn shipment of copper sulphate to the NT

Raiden Resources jumps 11% as Andover South drilling to kick off with PoW on Minister's desk

ASX explains: How 'futures' are predicted

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News