LYC (ASX) Buying Lynas in US.

Originally posted by ContraryJ ↑

For two weeks I have been trying to buy LYSCF and Dy. I bought nothing last week. and up to yesterday nothing this week. The price has been 5% below my bid but no trades at that price. Well yesterday I bought a whopping 2,135 Shares CF A fraction of my current bid which I have cut back twice trying to stimulate some action. Usually pulling a bid or offer and putting it back out at 50% of its original volume will make people think they should trade. My original buy was only 25% of what I would like to buy. I knew a full volume bid would just make people wait above it.

Yes I can raise the price but I hate to drive the price up 15% to 20% just to watch it fall back when I am done. I am not sure that even 7c would net many shares and that is a 15% above yesterdays price. it was 5.8c a week ago when I started. I started at 6.0C

My broker will not trade in international stocks (LYC.AX ) under SP $5.00. There are exceptions but that is way out of my range. Even if I could the base per share fees are higher and there are fees like $100 per transaction foreign exchange fees, a $50 per year holding fee for foreign stocks. All on top of the usual stuff.

Major problem is that no one is trading in US because it is so ill-liquid, it is ill-liquid because no one is trading.
Next Problem DY and CF are penny stock below 10c raising fees and incuring extra fees. Fees go way up on a % basis to where they are a noticeable part of transaction. Especially if you only get 2135 shares in a week.
Lynas still has a negative PE which is looked at allot in US. Soon to change
In Us Equity per share is looked at second after PE and that is only about 2C a share. Unlikely to change much with total shares outstanding.

This problem is mainly mine, others may not agree. I believe Mt K options put a cap of 10 to 12c on LYC.AX stock till all the 5c options are exercised. Then a cap of 15C to 17C till bounds are converted. This limit makes me very aware of the down side risk compared to the upside gain. If I buy LYSCF at an average price of 7 C and the 5c options hold the LYC. AX to 10C for a year then DY sells for 8c. A penny is not much to work with, yes it is a 12.5% gain but fees cut into it. Yes the spread could be 3 or 4 cents and could have a short term peak well above that. If I buy I need a price that is stable for several weeks to sell into and I see that as capped by Mt K selling the 5 c options. There are about 350M shares at 5.0c, if MtK sells stock at 10c that's 35M of new money that would have to come into LYC.AX . Mt K still has not taken all the 3.8C options and there is a 4c + spread right now. 18M shares left of a total of about 174 M shares. MtK can change what they do at any time. High REE prices could change there thinking to the up side. Right now they appear to exercise & sell when ever there is a 5C spread over their purchase price. Until I see a change I will assume they will exercise the last 18 M at about 9C for LYC. Then start on 5C options at 10C or a little higher. Remember the bounds originally came due this September (or Sept '18?). For the last 2 years the holders have not even received interest, it was paid into restricted cash not to bound holders. I think they are much more interested in getting cash out that investing in Lynas. Time will tell.

If it was not for MTK I would gladly pay 8 or 9 cents a share DY or CF shares. The amount of new money that has to flow into LYC.AX to just cover MT K combined with dilution of PE and Equity per share just does not make it look so good if I have to go over 6.5c for DY or CF. If Mt K does not exercise the last 18M shares till 11 to 13 cents then that changes everything and I will be more aggressive about buying. In past the market has seen Mt K buying as a negative. If they buy over 11C that may be just what I need. Always great for a contrarian to have market see something the opposite of what they think.

I firmly believe the stock is going up, how much is the question. for right now I am pulling my GTC orders. Still looking for an opportunity with Lynas. but for right now I like other things better from a gain risk perspective. Structured notes are boring but much better gain /risk.

Expand

CJ, I get it that you are externalising your thinking about Lynas in your posts, but if you could summarise your thoughts in a few dot points at the beginning of the stream of consciousness stuff, you might actually generate some more discussion. eg, I think you have a fair point that the warrants and bonds will cap the SP for a while.

The amount of time you obviously spend thinking about LYC and given you seem to recon its likely to double in price - why not go get a Commsec account and just go buy a few ASX LYC at $20-30 brokerage to make the flutter meaningful?? Go on - I'm quite sure you won't over commit! If you don't, when the warrants and bonds are out of the system, Lynas has another NdPr train selling at 50% above the current price and is pumping out profits $200 M/yr - SP approaching $1 (2-3 yrs my guess) and a takeover is launched by Glencore or Seimens - I'm betting you'll kick yourself for not buying a decent packet at 8.4c!!

Congrats on that "Held" disclosure btw!

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	3000	$10.12

No.

Vol.

Price($)

3000

$10.12

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$10.13	9022	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$10.13

9022

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	13953	10.730
1	29	10.620
1	24141	10.400
1	33	10.210
2	3590	10.200

No.

Vol.

Price($)

13953

10.730

10.620

24141

10.400

10.210

3590

10.200

Price($)	Vol.	No.
9.500	200	1
9.510	27	2
9.630	25	1
9.710	718	1
9.720	11933	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

9.500

200

9.510

9.630

9.710

718

9.720

11933

(20min delay)
Last $10.12		Change -0.010(0.10%)		Mkt cap ! $9.466B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$10.13	$10.14	$9.93	$38.65M	3.839M

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