Ann: Operations Update, page-134

My 2 cents about DW stating the 50:50 in the latest announcement......

It's been said a lot that DW likes to under promise and over deliver. I think it's as simple as that. He doesn't like Basinski getting carried away as he keeps him Gaffa-Taped up. He knows that if he didn't state the 50:50 risk then people would have got overexcited about the higher pressure/flow rates. He knows investors would have assumed that this meant that the chance of success was higher. So instead of him being bombarded with emails asking "Is the chance of success higher now the pressure is known to be higher than expected", he nipped it in the bud there and then in the announcement.

IMO he's under promising to over deliver. I personally feel, based on plenty of quotes and actions by the management, that this is much much better than 50% CoS. IMO Dave is protecting himself so he can say "I did tell you this was 50:50" if in the unlikely chance this fails. I feel Dave needs to keep a cap on this because if he didn't state the 50:50 chance of success, then the optimism here would be through the roof and probably out of control based off the many actions and quotes from management. My optimism is through the roof anyhow, but his comments are working at keeping others level headed.

This is "The best shale reservoir in the world", an "Extraordinary reservoir" in the "Oiliest place in the world" where "the sweet spot is", with "highly frackable" geology, and we have bought a lot more land....

but there is apparently a 50% chance this is in fact a Dog's Doodoo of a reservoir, one that isn't economical, there is a 50% chance of this being one of the lamest reservoirs in the world. A failure, a useless piece of turd that is definitely not the best shale reservoir in the world and instead will be a laughing stock. People will say - wasn't the piece of land over there the "best shale reservoir in the world, an extraordinary reservoir" and there will be nothing but a Polar Bear sitting there doing a Poo on top of the Ice. Can the best shale reservoir in the world actually just be a Polar Bear's toilet?

That's my technical analysis.