Scared by bad analysis

Seems like Forager's rushed post on TPG Telecom has sucked the life out of posters here.

Some obvious facts to show he is wrong:

1) He thinks the NBN change is a catalyst for churn. He has not studied the industry in developed economies. Look at USA, Germany, Japan, U.K., and yes even Singapore. These are what I would call mature countries where telco players have 'history' and battle scars. Telco has always been an industry where you need to be no 1 or 2 or out...

In terms of the telco market structure, Australia is still 'emerging' behind South Korea. You simply need to figure out who is going to be no 1 and no 2 in Australia. He has quasi placed his bet on MyRepublic.

2) MyRepublic is selling their product without bracketing their speeds. They are just saying up to 100/40mbps. Whereas everyone else is selling based on speed 'brackets' because they need to pay NBN based on brackets. Also google the CEO...there is a quote where mentions a survey that consumers are price sensitive but uninformed about speeds/technology. In other words, their pricing strategy is to win among the patsies. (Any MyRepublic customers here?).

3) He didn't even factor in the engineering/technical standpoint. His comment is about as flawed as saying "oh, I think the cars on the toll road will start diverting and choosing an alternate route purely because of a lower price from an unsustainable provider". You put your thinking caps on.