The big variable here Db is the SOAK aspect and that will vary with the extent of the fracture network, variability of clay type, if any etc etc.
We also have an even bigger variable in that they're choking the well if not keeping a little floating pressure on it as well to retain the proppant so anynextrapolation if frac fluid flow back is a bit dangerous imo.
Imo if they don't need to shut in the well to allow pressure build up then that initially augers well for initial flows but doesn't really indicate longer term decline. This can only be proven by longer term observation.
Ultimately its still a waiting game and imo we have gone about as far as we can with the info we have until we get more info.
d.
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