Let's be clear in the offer price for Arrium i.e. what is for sale:
1) A$700 million of steel inventory;
2) 17 million tonnes of stockpiled iron ore - which must surely have a much lower break-even price delivered to China than freshly mined iron ore. (say US$12 - US$14 per tonne)
3) 2 new washing plants installed with a Federal Government Loan of A$49 million at cheap interest rates of only 2.70% per annum;
4) Forecast EBITDA of A$297 with Iron Ore averaging only US$44 per tonne (it has averaged around US$58 a tonne during 2016/2017).
5) $2 Billion of tax losses carried forward.
6) Tariffs in place of between 30% and 50% on imported steel.
7) Trade Unions having accepted 10% pay cuts as part of new EBA.
Let's be clear that when a company is in administration, inventory is usually sold at very discounted prices to clear the stock (50% to 60% off market price) - in the case of Arrium, there is A$700 million worth of steel that is being sold into a very strong market due to the high infrastructure spend and also with tariffs in place. Oh, and steel -price are up around 70% from what they were on 7th of April 2016.
Forget all this non-sense about Whyalla needing $250 million or $700 million - this is just a rusefor the banks and KM and their commission driven advisers (Morgan Stanley) to get rid of Arrium and get their money back - and shaft the shareholders in the process.
If that Arrium does not get sold for A$2 Billion, it is a rip off and a damning indictment of Corporate Australia.
ARI Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
