The more I think about this statement the more angry I become. First let me say there is absolutely nothing false in your statement, it is all true. It is highly misleading and contains little information usable to a potential or future stock holder.
"more dilution in 2020" is utter nonsense, scary bedtime story, what sort of earnings do you think Lynas would need 2020 to roll over US$200?
What is US $200 M The debt is over US 460M with deferred interest what is 200 M. Now 35 M in defered interest is not much but where did $200M come from. What do you think is need to elimanate this Au600M? I do not think it can be met so it is up to you to show why I am wrong.
Below is typical double talk garbage. what are you saying? what does $ 2.60 and 6.00 refer to
"leverage debt, they can generate greater margin than the coupon, time your purchases so can the average punter on market, TLS from $2.60 to $6.00 was free carried, thank yer muther fer the rabbits."
Please explain if you don't, you admit it is garbage!!!
The following is very true but could you please put some real numbers on how it helps to reduce the AU $ 600 M debt due in 2020 Again a true statement but absolutely no data on how it helps the problem with real numbers. It will help but show why it even comes close to helping with the total problem.
"Any with the vaguest concept this business would understand the 15ktpa Japanese NdFeB industry is going to be almost totally dependent Lynas NdPr by 2020, and how many $T downstream, auto, robotics, etc?"
What will this do to prices? WHEN? Will it help? most certainly!!! Don't you think you should offer at least a small clue as to how much? Or why there is any chance of it being enough. Back up the amazing statements with some sort of real data of what it will take to pay down AU$ 600 M.
"Far more likely Lynas will RAISE CapEx to leverage established business WAY ahead of the pack, rather than any issue rolling $200M 2020, one potential upside converting MtK/F to equity."
Do you have any idea what CAP EX is? first you have to have money to spend on Cap Ex. The overburden removal for mine expansion will be Cap Ex This will result in depleating cash but keep the expenditure from hitting P&L right away. It will hit when ore is used. You talk about it like it is free cash. No one is going to loan this company any money to be third in line behind $600M in debt, with a company that has not turned one AU$ in profit. If you think I am wrong please explain how!!! So the only place this CAP Ex is going to come from is true profits. Now after they spend this money on CAP EX what is left to pay down the debt. You keep talking about Cap Ex likes it is free cash. Capitalizing expenditures means the expense does not hit profits till a later date but it take cash to create Cap Ex. Where does this cash come from?
"Do you understand CJ no other ROW will produce NdPr at scale this decade, and likely well into next? Pity you didn't sit in on the round table San Diego with BOSE global PO magnetics, one very nervous lady, already, dependent 3 Chinese mag makers."
No I was not there but could you tell me what you expect the impact to be on NdPr price and what that impact will do to sales price and earnings? How much that increase will raise to pay debt? While you are at it figure out at what HP or KW size motors will start using 3 phase instead of perm magnets. I think right now the break point is 150 HP or 112 KW you point out the nervousness of rising Nd prices but do you consider the impact on demand. What happens if tipping point moves from its current 150 Hp down to 100 HP or 75 KW. All of a sudden perm magnets are only an option for tinny vehicles like like Nisan Leaf or Chevy Bolt. What does that do for demand? Up till now in the US all HVAC motors have been 3 phase. They are smart motors converting AC to DC then using DC to do precision speed and power control on 3 phase motors. They are just starting to experiment with Perm magnets in the under 50 HP range. They will go back very quickly with unstable motor prices, I think. What do you believe?
You love to point out out all these true facts and say that will solve the problem but not one piece of hard data as to how. Just what do you think statements with no data to how it helps problem are worth? Right now the debt is at AU$600 M with 13 Qs left to pay it which is 46 Million a Q they have to pay. I think they will be lucky to pay all the deferred interest (which has to be paid before any principle. plus current interest in the next year). So this time next year if all deferred and current interest is paid they will owe US $ 425 M or AU$ 567 M and there will be 9 Qs left so to pay it off by August 30 2020 they will need to pay AU$ 63M a Q. Show me how all your great facts comes close to paying that much and I will listen. yes I know 9 Qs is Sept 30th I thought I would give the extra month.
Please stop throwing out random data with absolutely nothing on how it helps. Does it help? Sure it does Is it even close enough to being enough? I do not think so and that is what is important.
What we really need is another 3 % in LE and Ce prices for you to crow about in spite of it being nothing. that helps.
You keep saying US does not get it. We just look at different things first is profits which are less than zero. Secound is Equity to Debt which is less than AU $ 82 M / Au$ 600 M which is a really poor number. (from H1 report) I like 2 or 3.
I am still buying Lynas it is a very high risk with potential great returns. To not understand all the pluses and negatives is setting yourself up to lose money. From your posts I do not see any data on even the pluses. Just broad sweeping statements that are without value until you give some valid assumptions on how it helps.
As you have pointed out many times it has taken many years for them to reach this point. for a company. Q3 was an amazing Q far beyond anything I expected but Sales were only 69M. tons sold 3437. They probably loss money. We will not know for sure till annual report. Now explain how all these great facts clear debt.
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