I think a lot of people do the analysis for TPG's mobile customers as steadily acquiring X amount per month. It doesn't look pretty and the scepticism around the profitability of the investment is probably warranted when you look at it that way.
But, I think the reality is that the number of people onto Tpg's network is likely to come swiftly in one big chunk - there's a point where Vodafone just wave the white flag.
TPG have ramped up on mobile advertising and they are now running it like they have with their ADSL advertising - bill boards, on buses, etc. I assume they're going to do this and try to build up to 1-2 million customers while they're deploying the network. Just slowly chip away at converting Vodafone customers and get the customer base to the point where mobile is break-even. That way they can play hard ball when it comes to negotiations with Vodafone.
I am expecting to see a significant turnaround in mobile customers when they release full year results and presentation. Mobile customers have been declining, but I believe this is the reversal point.
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