dye 5 to 20 bagger in the next 5 years

these are a cut and paste of my comments on this stock over the last 2-3 mths


think of the evolution of energy like evolution of the computer, the move from mainframe to server based, mainframe kept their ground and a little growth but as servers expanded they took most of the growth, so the industry is moving from centralised to distributed , centralised solar and 2nd gen panels are great for places with lots of light and lots of space, eg deserts in Spain , Arizona, China and Asutralia, when we get into the northern lats there isnt many deserts and fluky light, the comparisons between 2nd and 3rd gen are all done in full light so 3rd look like they are less efficient when in reality 3rd gen are more efficient in all but direct sunlight, stick 2nd gen's on your place in Scotland or try using it on a cloudy day and they are near useless, because DYE pastes are nano you can virtual cover anything with them, so you can integrate them into literally anything, including cloths, phones, buildings, autos, planes, anything that you can coat with something, and they work even on the dark side of the building. So comparing 2nd and 3rd gen is apples and oranges, they both have a role in the right situation

Dyesols top selling dye cost $79k for 100 grams, if Corus went into full production they might order 1000 kgs annually with say a 80% discount for that kind of amount (estimate based on bulk titanium costs) they might sell a kg for say 150k, so a 1000kgs for say $150M @ about 4% of production cost and then manufacture can claim carbon credits etc for producing products that are energy net neutral or positive

I tend to look at management , ideas and progress, like I said you watch this stock if they manage to snare a major manufacturer then the revenue will be coming off almost nonexistent base and it will serve to confirm that they are commercially viable. For Dyesol meeting the Corus milestones is very significant.

DYE is incredibly interesting in that they are thoughtful in everything they do, the business model is absolutely unique in that they mimic a software company rather than a solar company in their business model. Most solar companies try to build panels and distribute them geographically, this limits their revenue growth in that they have build and ship to wherever they sell the panels. DYE on the other hand want to own the IP for technology and leverage manufacturers who use their IP in the manufacturing process. This means they don’t have the normal barriers to scale very large quickly, panel manufacturers have build factories etc, these guys just have license their pastes and dyes to the manufacturers who do all the heavy lifting, this allows them to scale globally and massively.

if you take the Corus relationship, Corus is the 6 th largest steel building manufacturer in the world, they just got take over by the Indian giant TATA. Corus thought enough of their technology to send 8 of their folk to DYE for a month to exchange IP. DSC coatings integrated into building product like rolled steel and glass could enable the large manufactures to get into building integrated solar production in a very short time frame. The alternative for a Corus like company would be to develop their own IP and thats a long slow way to get to market.

If Corus go into full production as looks likely you could see a $30m jump in revenue in 2 years, if Corus take to India through their parent TATA then who knows ?????if the Japanese distributors do what they say it could add another $5m in the same time frame. Most solar companies have to build plant and spend capital to grow revenue these guys just have to send the recipe to the manufacturer and watch the dollars roll in. The manufacturer spends the capital and DYE just sell IP (like a sofware company), this will fund more R&D which keeps them as leaders, the whole company is basically one big R&D unit.

So given the interest from Corus they must have concluded that DYE is a ready for the market otherwise they wouldn’t have sent their folks over to Australia, now they are meeting their milestones its becoming very probable that will move into full production So my guess is that we are going to see DYE mimic a software startup , that is they just manufacturer and ship their dyes or train manufacturers to make the dyes. This allows a potential exponential ramp in revenues if their IP is unique.

CORUS researched all the technology and partners and chose Dyesol to be their exclusive partners. “When Corus go into production the orders could be in tonnes not kg's (quote Dyesol CEO)”

Corus manufacture 100 million square meters of steel building products and the goal is to make them all solar power enabled.

Corus have an exclusive relationship with Dyesol


Is their IP unique ? Well they state they want to own the third generation solar space and they have the best looking team in the solar business, plus they have their patents sorted out.

These dyes can be applied to just about anything and even work indoors under fluro lights.

if you look at the share distribution its moved from zero European involvement 12 mths ago to till now (30% European held mostly Germany) . Germany is the home of solar they have 48 of the top 50 solar power stations in the world.

These guys have been working on this strategy for 15 years, its very well thought out and purposeful.

They are also hosting the European DSC conference in Europe in Sept , thats 200 research scientists form around the world all working with them on improving the DSC. If you listen to the Greatzel interview on Boardroom radio he alludes to more exciting developments on the research side.

Better as they grow they can hire the very best of the research PHD's in the market, these folks are close to the research community so it offer the very best scientists a chance to make some money.

The stock is tightly held because the folks that own the stock have invested their lifes work into it. They know what they have got better than anyone.

If Corus or one of the others go into mass production this stock will react like a Saturn rocket.

In summary world leadership, killer business model, awesome talent and near term product to markets.

DYE's only real DSC competitors are privately held or VC funded , there is no other publicly listed company in 3rd generation organic cells.


http://cleantech.thepodcastnetwork.com/2007/05/29/the-cleantech-show-004-interview-with-sylvia-tulloch-dyesol-3rd-generation-solar-cell-technology


a great interview with the MD of Dyesol outlining the history of the company history, strategy, partner program and the future.

Interesting commentary on CORUS one of the biggest suppliers of building products in the world.


EU regulators are requiring for Corus to make their products energy neutral.

Dyesol works in flouro light indoors, clouds and the even the shady side of of a building


as far as I can see thats the story with most of the others, they get paid shares for either joining the company or selling something into the company, like their takeover of STI that was owned by the Tullochs (who now work for Dyesol), the got paid in Dyesol shares
.
The maangement are true believers, extremely smart and passionately committed and hugely ambitious, these folk have committed their live to this cause. These qualities are extremely rare in business, the if Ray Kurzweil is even half right we are entering a new age that is similar to days of Edison, Ford and Marconi.

Advantages of DSC include
New generation solar products unique and novel
Technology proven
Cell durability proven
Great market appeal - warm colors and transparency
Mimics photosynthesis - true green energy
Clean manufacture
Enables new industry, new generations of products
Route to photocatalytic low pressure hydrogen production
DSC development has synergies with research in fuel cells, Organic LED's, lithium batteries, electrochromics and nano-materials, so advances in those fields benefit DSC.
DSC can be used in any solar conditions--haze, shade, cloud, glare and smog. Classical semi conductor solar cells lose voltage in variable light.
DSC outperforms all other solar cells for indoor and low light applications.
DSC can come in a wide range of colours and transparencies.
Cost competitive for kWh/SqM/annum
DSC can utilise any shape or form--its simply a matter of materials engineering--flexible or rigid--metal, polymer, glass or ceramic substrate.
DSC has the lowest embodied energy of all PV technologies. Forecast costs for other technologies will be difficult to reach due to the increasing cost of energy, which is embodied in the product.
DSC delivers power all day, everyday, anywhere.

G24 recent events

G24 Innovations is the first solar company to go into large scale production of dye based solar cells

http://www.g24i.com/

so on May 4 they announce the appointment of their chief scientist Dr Tabor

http://www.azobuild.com/news.asp?newsID=3549

you will notice in the announcement that hes going to co located with Professor Graetzel the Head scientist (and shareholder) at Dyesol

Graetzel is the inventor of DSL cells and basically the edison of 3rd generation cells

May 10th Dyesol announce the biggest ever order to G24 Innovations

http://www.dyesol.com/index.php?page=NewsArticles&archiveitemid=5&archiveitemdatetime=2007-05-10%2009:54:02&archiveitemstart=1&archiveitemtotal=29&archiveitemlimit=3

Remember Graetzel sold his company (basically a patent holding company) to Dyesol for equity

Now when G24 Innovation originally announced their plant for Cardiff

http://www.greenjobs.com/public/industrynews/inews02077.htm

the mentioned another dye solar cell supplier called Konarka Technologies (they are listed at the bottom of the announcement)

http://www.konarkatech.com/about/

Konarka is Dyesols only REAL global competitor

So it looks to me that the technology has displaced konarka as their dye supplier

its one of those confirmation signs that you need from a company at this stage of devhttp://www.acnnewswire.net/press/en/36807/DYESOL-LIMITED.html

Dyesol beat Konarka for the first deal and co located their chief scientists with Dyesols chief scientist


This means that massive scale roll coated steel building products will be in the market in the near to medium term. Imagine entire buildings (including the glass areas) becoming a single integrated solar cell , a building could become its own power plants to power things like airconditioning.

The Edison of Solar (Michael Graetzell) is on the Dyesol scientific board listen to him on boardroom radio talking up Dyesol

http://www.brr.com.au/event/DYE/1770/18880

Dyesol hold more patents than any other single DSSC company

Recent acquisitions reflect their strategy to "own the DSSC market" they recently merged with Prof Graetzels own company Greatsol

Graetzel is now a major shareholder of Dyesol

Dyesol employ no less than 30 of the worlds leading PHD's in nano, chemicals and solar and partner with some of the leading research labs.

Dyesol is worth $60m +/- 10% at present considering all of the above $6B isnt out of the question in 5 years