Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

RVR

Click for more information

0.00%

7.3¢ red river resources limited

Great article for RVR, page-3

First 3 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
FiendishRedbeard

9,111 Posts.

909

04/07/17

03:13

Post #: 25643988
Share
Originally posted by thaiinvest ↑

From Bloomberg today

Support what the RVR Hotcopper board comments have been saying: - US largely away for the 4 July Holiday on Tuesday – expect a jump Wednesday in US Thursday in Australia/ Europe

LME is short physical but the biggest shortage is in Shanghai – everyone expecting Chinese steel production to weaken – but with all their projects its up 10%.

Zinc is going only one way for the next 6 months at least – and that up hopefully UP. RVR will follow as zinc prices and increased RVR reserves, LOM plus plant commissioning, off take agreements and first production are announced over then next 4 months.

Remember Cancord’s last financials projected zinc price of US$1.28 in 2018 and US$1.35 in 2019 – but Macquarie projecting zinc of US$1.45 by first Qtr – as every increase in price above US$1.28 assuming same ore grade and processed should drop strait to the bottom line anyone figure out how much additional revenue /profit this would mean to RVR’s 2018 & 2019.
For once we really are in the sweet spot

Redbeard - don't disagree with you - yes its primarily Glencore controlled, China don't know whats going on I think for them and the Phillipines some of its pollution control - however if you look at the Glencore website and presentations they got significantly "wacked" by falling commodities 3 years ago and state that they have learnt their lesson "focus on profit not production"- they are focused going forward at trying to iron out the boom and busts of mining that almost bankrupted them - they want to see sustained zinc price above US$1.60 before they start major zinc production again - however I think the short / medium term 18 month shortage is real and then Glencore and others will step up production I actually think some of their mines produce coper and zinc so it may be a matter of varying the ore mix. They may want to end the boom and bust of the mining commodity business but its unfortunately even with Glencore aways the way of the world - higher prices bring more projects and production and possibly in 18 months - 2 years we will be crying in our soup as zinc prices start reversing from new highs - in the meantime lets enjoy the current situation for RVR. Its better opening a mine in a rising rather than a falling zinc market

From Bloomberg

“METALS-Zinc at highest in nearly three months as shortage fears grow

LME/ShFE arb - http://tmsnrt.rs/2oQ5nm2

Exchange inventories still declining

Zinc cancelled warrants on LME above 75 pct

China data boosts sentiment

(Recasts, adds comment, changes dateline from Melbourne)
Zinc prices hit its highest in nearly three months on Monday as the market fretted about shortages, dwindling stocks and expectations of strong demand from top consumer China.
Benchmark zinc CMZN3 on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.9 percent at $2,782 a tonne by 0956 GMT, having touched $2,795, its highest since April 6. Prices of the metal used to galvanise steel are up more than 10 percent since June 7.
"Zinc is in a strong position. The concentrate deficit from last year has moved downstream into an ingot deficit," said Macquarie analyst Vivienne Lloyd. "Stocks are falling and Chinese smelters have been forced to cut output because of a lack of feed (concentrate)."
SHORTAGES: Macquarie expects a 650,000 tonne zinc shortfall this year and sees prices breaching $3,000 a tonne by the fourth quarter of this year. Societe Generale's Robin Bhar is not so bullish and expects a deficit of 250,000 tonnes this year.
INVENTORIES: Zinc stocks in LME-approved warehouses at 289,275 are down more than 30 percent this year, while those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have tumbled nearly 60 percent to less than 65,000 tonnes. CU-STX-SGH
AVAILABILITY: A tighter LME market is exacerbated by cancelled warrants -- metal earmarked for delivery and so no longer available -- at more than 75 percent. MZNSTX-TOTAL
SPREADS: Worries about nearby shortages have narrowed the discount for cash over the three-month contract to near zero from $20 a tonne last month. MZN0-3
DEMAND: China accounts for nearly half of global zinc demand estimated at about 15 million tonnes this year. Its zinc output in May fell by 9.9 percent to 481,000 tonnes, which has contributed to consumers drawing down stocks.
CHINA: Industrial metals were supported overall by data showing June factory activity and new orders growing at their fastest pace in three months.
DATA: The market will be keeping a close eye on China's industrial production, investment, trade and property data over coming weeks for further clues on demand strength. ECONCN
TECHNICALS: Traders expect strong resistance at $2,900, near March highs, and then the February peak of $2,980. Trendline support is a distance away at about $2,700.
DOLLAR: A lower U.S. currency this year has helped to underpin base metals prices because it makes dollar-denominated products cheaper for non-U.S. buyers, potentially boosting demand. The dollar index is down more than 6 percent since January.[FRX/] “

Expand

Glencore at least in public have said they are not interested in a race to the bottom in terms of supply of any commodity. Off topic but I wonder if a secondary motivation for higher zinc and lead prices is facilitating the sale of Mt Isa assets. If you believe in electric everything the future for lead looks dire.
RVR Price at posting: 23.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Week 29 Wrap: Trump in spotlight again; China's Third Plenum a yawnfest; RBA's August move a mystery

I88

Large fault structure and uranium anomalies picked up by Infini at Newfoundland play

HBF to throw 10% vote behind NDC BidCo's buyout of Pacific Smiles Group

29M

High-grade copper results provide some relief to 29Metals after earlier mine shutdown

PH2

Pure Hydrogen inks MOU for 5 hydrogen buses in Saigon – days after Twiggy's FFI reeled back in

There are more pages in this discussion • 4 more messages in this thread...

First 3 Last

Add RVR (ASX) to my watchlist