"...no good news coming to save it until August"
"No news is good news", people used to say during the old days. But nowadays, "good news is no news"?...
Nearly everyone is now expecting some kind of good news from the Annual Report in August, as everyone was expecting similar things before 24 August last year...
What actually happened then?
The SP was closed @
A$2.19 on 23/08/2016, one day before the Annual Report was released on 24 August. The SP was closed
@2.05 on 24, and all the way down to
1.815 on 02/09/2016, or down 21% from 2.19 on 23/08/2016...
This shouldn't be too surprised to mature investors. A2MC had already made an announcement that "Group revenue is now forecast to be in the range of $350 million to $360 million" on 15/06/2016
1, and the actual Group revenue was 352.8 million
2, which was just a little short of the forecast. Many retail investors had been just expecting too much!
A2MC again made an announcement that "Group revenue is now forecast to be approximately NZ$545 million for the 2017 financial year" on 16/06/2017.
3
As I indicated a few days earlier that:
"I don't expect the actual revenue will be short of the forecast this year, but I don't expect it will exceed the number very much either. After all, the forecast was based on the actual number by the end of May, and only 2 weeks remaining by the date when the forecast was made." 4
I sincerely hope that people don't expect too much from this year's Annual Report in the coming month, just in case...
By the way, I was considered as a "non-forward looking" when I made my calculation about the
fair value of A2M. To me,
fair value is the value/price which is considered to be now, and is different from the target price which is usually considered to be about 12 months later.
The Average Target Price in the next 12 months was upgraded from NZ$3.52 to NZ$3.82,
5 after A2MC's latest trading update on 16/06/2017.
NZ$3.82/1.0515=
A$3.6329
Please ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH...
1.
https://research.nabtrade.com.au/uploadhandler/z12907c0az1594eff59f4849aeb9e4206240c0b51e.pdf
2.
https://research.nabtrade.com.au/uploadhandler/z07907c0az35ea146448094202a094c5d5f49d2537.pdf
3.
https://research.nabtrade.com.au/uploadhandler/z19907c0azaca9deaf51e54bb1be99dd18dd72fe8c.pdf
4.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/a2m-chart-update.3168944/page-2704?post_id=25589451#.WVrFQTt97IU
5.
http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COMPANY-LTD-21453329/consensus/
(20min delay)