Well its time to put pen to paper(fingers to keypad) re my inner thoughts as to how all this has come together and initmate what may be in next to come.
The story has become clearer as the various fundamental developments such as project arrangements,substantial holdings ect have been revealed.
So I will go with a chronological description of what has unfolded.
It begins just prior to the main spike in 2006.In fact it began back in the dim dark recesses of time when MF snafood what imo may have been one of the spec deals of the century,just as Anvil picked up Dikulshi for a song.
1) 15/9/06 - The Perkoa offtake LOI was anncd in which was stated,
"These three off-take partner(Xstrata/Votorantim/Loius Dreyfus) will provide Perkoa with a secure, long-term
market, attractive sales terms and flexibility in concentrate sales."
"The Letters of Intent set out the framework and the commercial terms which will be incorporated into off-take agreements between the Parties."
Dont know about you but this implies the parameters for the zinc price may well have been set under this LOI.Take note of just what the zinc price was doing at the time.A little research for one and all.
2) 18/10/06 gave us the Perkoa finance arrangements which more importantly gave a us the REALISTIC Capex for Perkoa on the basis of fast tracking of the mine development and higher materials costs,promising much higher initial capex but with a better NPV due to the sooner production output.
It was consequently stated by the company that they were keeping their options "flexible" in how the capex would be raised,an important factor as things unfold.
3) 9/11/06 ,or thereabouts,the sp goes for its first big run up to 35.5c.
4) 17/11/06 and on this date North Sound enters the picture with a 7.93% holding.
5) 20/11/06 interestingly Aim then gives us the first mention of an OCF of $130M post North Sound taking their position in the London Mines and Money preso.The carrot has been dangled for the first time in public?
6) 29/11/06 Frank Brewer takes 6.29%,did he go to the preso?
7) 29/12/06 Aim anncs they have raised the A$23.75M via the UK/ASX issue.On the same date Frank Brewer discloses some of the take up of the placement.So he does hold a portion at 29c confirmed.
8) 30/1/2007 In the Qtrly we have confirmation of what was mentioned re "flexibility" in point (2)
"The funding mix for the Perkoa Zinc Project is continually under review and may change from
that announced on 18 October 2006 based upon market conditions.Discussions are continuing with advisors, banks and the off-take partners."
9) 5/2/07 Perkoa license received and then
10) 6/3/07 North Sound continues its support of Aim by taking another 3% of Aim stock.Notice the sp was weak at this stage due to the doubt surrounding the financing arrangements.The market did not perceive the "flexibilty" statement well.Imo North Sound asked questions and must have been given reassurance that the carrot was still in fact juicy and large and nothing had changed except possibly a slight shift of production date.
11) 16/3/07 North sound yet again confirms its support for Aim by upping their holding again to 11.57%.Carrots still good.
12) North Sound go YET AGAIN to 13.36% in support of the sp.
IS IT ANY WONDER THE SP WOULDNT DROP BELOW 20c!!!
This was essentially the end of North Sounds position taking/support apart from the significant fact they had disclosed their interest and confidence in what Aim was up to.Note there were valuations at 22c that were,to my knowledge,not withdrawn which led to the consequent support at low 20s even whilst the project apparently remained in limbo UNTIL
13) 4/4/07 In the Perkoa Update annmnt
A reason for the sp weakness was addressed
"However, Scott Reid and Christopher Innis have resigned as directors of the company to pursue other business activities and Wayne Kernaghan has resigned as Company Secretary due to increased business commitments. All of these resignations have immediate effect."
14) End of April/early May we have a quick succession of new company secretary and the BIG appointment,and the market liked what it saw(!)Vic Bradley came on board as the new non-exec Chairman.
15) 22/5/07 The momentum play begins with Mumbwa's S36 anncd.Bear in mind this is a genuine result as well as an excellent critical mass annmnt.
16) 31/5/07 Bill Cash arrives and we have the 3-4c man.LOL
17) 14/6/07 Yet another milestone in Aims significant holder portfolio with JPMorgan taking up a much larger holding via UK buys but moreso in what now appears to be a strong placement presence in the unit issue.
18) 19/6/07 Simon Jones who already holds 3.29% ups his holding by 4.21% and lists the consideration as VARIOUS.Me thinks Frankie boy and Jonesy were in deep conversation over in the corner of the pub a few weeks prior to the unit issue occuring with Jonesy pouring over his financial position seeing just how much he could afford.In fact he could afford a nice little chunk in anyones terms!
19) 21/6/07 The VERY INTERESTING UNIT FINANCE ANNMNT which reveals just how "flexible" MF has forced this finance package.A virtual contortionist tour de force in terms of finance packages from the original concept floated way back in point (2)
And now for a few observations
*Around the 6/2/07 we had Indaba 2007 at which Aim commented(via the media)that they were keen to go minimal hedge and they still had an OCF figure of $130M.This media item does exist and can be found in previous posts but you will just have to take my word for granted as it took me ages to find last time.If anyone can pull it up Id appreciate it.
*Now we STILL have not seen the offtake or finance deals,obviously,but its this that facinates me.The question being why.I dont know about all you out there in mining investment land but I usually find offtakes are anncd to the market early in the piece to create investor momentum.But its still being kept tucked away.The final debt finance is too.Are they inextricably linked?Quite possibly imho.
*The big juicy carrot is what is contained within the above imho and has quite possibly been finalised whilst MF was away.
*The debt portion has been substantially reduced via the unit issue to a level at which it may become integrated into another form and not necessarily all a lender form of cash.Big assumptions made here so may well be off the mark.
BUT if that carrot contains an OCF of $130M then I can fully understand the moves of substantial holders over the last few months.
NOT WELL there are lots of assumptions made here and this should not be construed as what has taken place to the letter of the law.
BUT IT DOES ALL SEEM TO FIT WITH the chronology of the ANNMNTS.
Probably my last major posting with any luck and looking forward(with all digits/limbs crossed) as to how things unfold in the next few weeks.
d.
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