QIN (ASX) Ann: Extension of Voluntary Suspension

Originally posted by Mayi ↑

HT has copped a lot on this forum and his position was the opposite of mine (I am long and have a large holding) but I don't think he has either gloated and has proved to be largely correct in assessments.

The reality is that short sellers have at least been mostly right (perhaps even completely right) and will make money even in the unlikely event of a takeover offer. Their role in QIN's problems have been to highlight the company's problems. they did not create them. At best the management of QIN have failed to effectively manage cash flow and have been too aggressive is in growing the business, endangering the future of the company. Without short sellers perhaps the drop in the share price would have given people who were long in the stock more chance to get out (and spread the losses to other investors), but the result would have been the same.

The future of the company is still very much in doubt. I think the length of the extension of the trading halt this time is telling, because it ends the day before the interest payment is due to bond holders and I guess that is the drop dead date for QIN. It either raises funds by that date or is dead.

It seems to me that the company needs probably $50 million to continue into the medium term. One option is to have a rights issue - for example 1 for 2 at 20-25c would raise close to $50 million. If the directors believe the company is viable then they could do this and give existing shareholders who share that view the opportunity to avoid dilution. If they do not make the attempt to raise capital through existing shareholders it would suggest that they do not believe the company is viable or that there is no realistic chance of gaining shareholder support.

My 2c for what it is worth

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thanks for those words.

As for a $50m rights issue, I think it would struggle on two counts. Firstly, I very much doubt any broker would underwrite it there which would make it prone to failure, and secondly in FY16 they raised >$100m from capital markets but cash only increased by $34m. That means in a year where they brought in about $140m in establishment fees and land sales, they still needed to raise >$66m. The cash requirements of this business are staggering and I doubt $50m would get them through a year, let alone to a point where they can start harvesting their bigger plantations and finding out if there's a market for them. It would likely be viewed as good money after bad.