Note to Self ; Don't try & predict outcomes based on past experiences. I would have been happy
with just oil shows, alas, there you have it! I guess I'm just a half glass empty sort of guy.
A few points regarding the FAN plays in our prolific basin ;
1. FAN1 had multiple levels of oil type ranging from 27*-41*API. So far we have been given only 1
here @31* API. Not to say there were not multiple levels as yet either untested or unrecoverable.
2. Let's not split hairs, 31* is LIGHT crude.
3. FAN1 did not return Contingent resources, even though net pay was given with good por/perm
recorded. OOIP remains the same as pre-drill ie. P50 950mmboo. I expect the same with FFS1
{how aptly named by OOO}, unless the reservoir containing the 31* oil is large enough with
good parameters v multiple "thin/tight" reservoirs with varying degrees of API. One decent
reservoir containing ALL the 31* oil could be "tied" back to SNE a lot further down the track,
at a lot higher oil price than now and with probably different entities comprising the JV.
4. A few snippets from an article published some 20 years ago ;
In recent years, Atlantic-type passive margin basins have proven to be the most important setting, producing 15 of the last 18 giant discoveries (Gulf of Mexico, Campos, Niger delta, and Lower Congo basins). In fact, the last eight giants have been found along the Atlantic margin, with the most recent three found in West Africa. The first 10 turbidite giants were discovered onshore, while 30 of the remaining 31 are located offshore.
As is generally true for giant fields in other settings, access to a world-class charge system is a key component. Without exception, the turbidite giants are located in provinces where significant reserves have been proven in other reservoir types, charged from the same source rocks as the turbidites.
Using a simple three-fold classification of trap type for the 35 giants for which trap information is published , 25% of the giant reserves come from pure structural traps (nine fields), 10% from stratigraphic traps (four fields), and 65% from combination structural-stratigraphic traps (24 fields), i.e., those which are dependent on both a structural element and a stratigraphic reservoir limit.
ie. Read FAN1.
Several turbidite giants reflect the adage that "a good field just gets better," with ultimate recovery increasing with time. Some of these did not become giants until many years after discovery, when appraisal, satellites, and enhanced recovery provided significant reserve additions. For this reason, several current discoveries less than 500 million BOE have the potential to become giants once fully appraised and once satellite potential is tested.
In essence, who knows how big or productive these FAN plays may or may not be in future years
with a lot more appraisal and investigation, if it so warrants. For me, the result at FFS1 continues
to underlie the prolific & extensive source rocks located within the basin. FFS1 is 30km south
of FAN1 and of course a lot closer to our recently acquired A2/A5 blocks in The Gambia. The Jemmah
1 well drilled in A1 some decades ago was "dry", bar some oil/gas shows apparently. Subsequent
reasons given were that it was drilled down dip, without sufficient closure. Our knowledge of the
play based on 3D seis, and success @ SNE in the same reservoir type augers well to at least point
the drill in the RIGHT direction this time round. Jemmah1 was "dry" as the tertiary source rocks
were eroded. Well, those particular source rocks in that location may have been dry, but the ones
sitting under FFS1 are certainly not. To my untrained eye at least, the presence of oil in FFS1 has
given us a 2nd migratory path, apart from the one that has so successfully charged the SNE reservoir.
Those A2/A5 blocks are looking like the steal of the century. Whilst FFS1 result today was beyond
my expectations, let others jostle for the deep water A1/A4 blocks. They are welcome to the complex
world of deep water turbidite fan plays, albeit with the good chance of them eventually becoming
Giants. The result at FFS1 surely adds fuel to the fire in terms of potential farm-in-ees to our
A2/A5 blocks.....we have the traps, we have the "source" even closer now. I'm expecting some
quickening of movement in relation to getting a signature on the dotted line. As strange as it may
sound, I feel myself more excited about A2/A5 than SNE. Not so excited about the SP or the POO,
but hey, hopefully they will come along for the ride when they see fit.
GLTAH
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