Agree with JT's(@Jagster Trading ) viewpoint here for the XJO direction over the ensuing months. I'll add that I 'see' potential for another (larger and longer timeframe)H 'n S's pattern possibly playing out ... going back to a LHS in May '13 with JT's minor H 'n S's 'head' being the LHS of that larger one. ,,, we shall see!
Anyway, I'm really here now(was going to wait for the more 'heady' Weekend thread to begin) to post a couple of AP charts and an 'old' AR(Action/Reaction) chart for the XJO I last posted over a year ago. These were a result of, now very much missed, discussions with a poster(Toastman @Toastman) and then our right honorable (now)Jako8557 in a thread called ... Trends/Forks and Turnarounds. (link shown here).
I know it may be difficult to see but the long-term AR chart(the 1st chart) has not been altered since its Action/Reaction ranges were identified nearly 3 years ago ... they are the 'thickened' coloured arrowed lines(grey, yellow and red). The things to note are that the 'yellow' action lines seem to provide the up runs(and pitches), the 'red' reaction lines provide the down runs(and pitches) whilst the 'grey' lines provide the action and reaction ranges. So, since last posting(as I said ... 12mths+ ago) you'll agree the AR lines still seem to be of use for swing timings(well a most of them) but maybe not as accurate for the 'greys' swing range levels over this last 6 months.
Looking at the "Close_Up" of the same chart you'll see we could be about to enter an interesting(decision making) confluence tomorrow. Is the XJO going to continue down its 'red' reaction line, as it has been for the last two weeks, or find support by the rising 'yellow' action line? I personally favour further weakness going into next week and at least heading towards the 'primary'(thick)grey 'range' line.
The viewpoint of further weakness, at least in the S/T, is backed up by the following Pitchfork chart BUT, but we are very near a potential important MT line of the fork ... just above the impending 'primary gray' line I mentioned earlier(~ 5600+/-). ... So, this level needs to be watched! ...Support or Break!
A couple of other things to note on this chart. Firstly, we are now back below that L/T (grey) downtrend line coming from the 2007H. SO, it's very possible that the recent 'action' above that line is a FALSE Breakout! In addition, have a look at the strong FIB resistance levels capping our market (76.4% retrace level from 2007 High to GFC Low range and the 61.8% extension of the 'red' range) ... same as the extended range of the (blue)Pitchfork baseline using //'s of the MT line. You'll also note the 61.8% extension 'balances-out' beeeautifully with the 61.8% retrace level that provide us with the important 2011 swing low. Cool, aye! Looking closer(and the 'yellow' Pitchfork) ... this should provide our next downside (OT)target line IF we breakdown through the MT of the blue Pitchfork. This could be very likely ... according to the CCI50 ... since we have already broken a minor uptrend support, and recent rejection at its downtend line on this indicator ... especially if goes below the 0% level.
(20min delay)