Questions..., page-218

Before you tell me about broker or analyst predictions. Please give their name. Also I would only listen to an analyst that has at least one correct call on Lynas in the last 3 years so give link to that call. Per usual an unnamed source with your key data.

Next is it a gift horse? If it was a few 100M shares I would totally agree. Options and bonds combined are over 3.5B and that is a whole different set of parameters.

15 months ago they received 174M options at 3.7C they still have 18 M not exercised. What they are doing with the shares exercised is hard to know. We have had some very good news last two Qs but every time stock starts to move someone seems to be selling. People keep saying they should dry up seller pretty soon. What if seller has access to 3.4B more shares? I will be first to admit I do not know but to assume the market for Lynas stock can just absorb these shares when looking at action on the 154M @ 3.7 is pretty far out to me. If MT K exercises 218M shares in the next 6 months and market is at 14 or 15C Then I will start to listen to you. If it takes till this time next year for them to do 218M shares and SP is struggling to maintain 10C then there will only be 2 years left and I doubt many bonds will have an opportunity to be converted in that time.
Think about this there are about 3.4B shares left. There are 38 months left till Sept 2020. That is 90M shares a month that the market has to absorb to have MT K out of picture, Sept 2020
MT K exercise 139M shares March 8. And 20.5M shares 28 April. What have you seen since March 8^th that makes you think they can do even 50% of the bonds by Sept 2020? Please show me where I am off base. If they only do 200M by June of next year then the equation is 3.2B in 28 months. = 114M a month. I am not saying it won’t happen there is a chance. Darn if I would say it even has a 50% chance.
With expenses and risk it is not a gift horse if stock is not over 15C. Lynas will need to do very well in the next 12 months to let MTK do 1B shares and SP stay over 12C. If Q1 does not have 5M in P&L earnings what do you think the chance of a billion shares are by June 2018 Is?

Oh I firmly believe AL will tell us the first Q they turn a P&L profit even if it Q! or Q3.