I think its more than one bad mistake. Also there is nothing wrong with selling when the fundamentals seem bad or have changed and then buying back in at a higher price at a later date when things have de-risked or changed for the better.
Also you are delusional to think this will get to a few dollars a share anytime soon. At $2 it would have a MC of $4.8B, or more than a quarter of that of FMG (who people love to compare NSL to).....who shipped 170 MILLION tons this year. So when NSL can process a quarter of that (40+mtpa) then they may be close. At the same PE as FMG (6.5) NSL would need to make $740m profit per annum. At the capacity of their current plant I very roughly estimate they can make $5.4m/pa profit ((200kt x $65) - yearly expenses of approx $8m). So applying a PE similar to FMG you get a current MC of $35m or 1.46c. I know PE isnt a great measure but its a simple one for the example.
Cedric stated in his interview that they plan to double capacity as soon as possible (but no mention of funding this). Im not sure of the economies of scale of NSL's operation but on the low end lets assume none (so an annual profit of $11m) and on the high end perhaps 50% (so 400kt x $65 - $12m expenses pa) give profit of $14m. So 2.9c-- 3.8c. I feel this is a much more realistic target in the next year or 18 months. This doesn't take into account dilution from raising funds or any other myraid of possibilities im likely to get thrown at me. It also doesnt take into account hype driven pumps by brokers or management holding options etc to offload shares and options.
If you cant see why this was sold down, well.................
NSL Price at posting:
2.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
