As
blister said it was just a thought experiment. I don't believe there are enough details to make accurate predictions but there are some hints floating around.
For example, back on 24 March 2017, SAS released
this announcement titled "
New Customers Secured for 3 Diamonds Nano-Sat Operations". Here are the highlights with one of them highlighted (hehe).
View attachment 652722
It's a little unclear here whether they mean Sat-Space Africa alone could generate these revenues using the full constellation, but I believe they clear it up a on page two:
View attachment 652728
To me, this reads as saying they will have X bandwidth with the full constellation, and they can rent out that bandwidth for between US$600m and US$1b per annum.
I think there are too many variables. The other ~200 satellites are supposed to be better. The 2 Msps was between satellites, not to Earth. We don't know how they intend to charge for bandwidth. All we really know is that there are still plenty more potential for the company and its share price from here.
Oh, and if you want more math. Let's say the other 200 satellites were the same and the generated gross revenues scale linearly (there's very little chance that is true because the value proposition of the constellation increases with more coverage and bandwidth).
A simple division of the potential gross revenues for 200 satellites (~66.66x more than 3 satellites) would mean the the 3 diamonds could produce circa US$9m to US$15m.
Take that with a grain of salt like all by bulls**t math. Just food for thought. In my opinion, the commercial demonstration provided by the 3 diamonds is just as much for potential customers as it is a good look into the future for investors. SAS hasn't even began to hit its stride.
I think your final point is why SAS has had such stellar growth in the past 12 months. Investors know where this it's headed. The 3 Diamonds are merely prototypes and mgmt as we know them will always stay ahead of the pack in nano tech.
The ever evolving constellation when it's up and running will be cutting edge, cheaper to launch and manage and therefore costs can be passed to the EU.
If you look at some of our successful old world competition, say Iridium then it's obvious that we'll beat them on price. The business and customers are not the same but I use their network regularly on a dedicated device and I can tell you it's shite! Like the dark ages of communication and it's incredibly expensive!
So yeah it's difficult to do the maths (but fun) because the numbers will be ever evolving. The number of sat's, the bandwidth etc etc will be ever increasing.
That's why SAS is so hot. As you point out and investors know, we've barely hit our stride.
True disruptive tech.
