Re: IAM New Investors, page-60

"righto i'm game and my guesstimate for quarter just ended $287,000 on the low and the upper $390,000 come on have a go just for fun - "IF" its $500,000 + hold onto ya hats ."
____________________

I'm game also.

I've been loathe to have a go at estimating the quarterly revenue, however I have a strong background in maths and a strong sense of logic. Pity not to use it. Some time back I think I guesstimated around $300k and thought "I'll be happy with that"..... but I dared to actually expect greater.....until I was looking at a few select comments and figures and just for fun put them together logically to see what happened. The answer made me smile.

What I decided to work with was the following information mentioned by management....

A) "Jan / Feb / Mar = 10/14/18 on board" (ie. at a rate of 4/month).
B) This (June) quarter we're on boarding "significantly faster" ( I went for 5/month meaning
. Apr / May / Jun = 23/28/33 now on board.
C) "March Qtr figures do not include Sentry" (I took that to mean 6 Sentry practices NOT paid up by March 30th).

Now using VERY simplified maths and making general assumptions of the middle month figures (ie. Feb and May) being satisfactory average figures ( 14 practices and 28 practices respectively) which are representative of their quarters you come up with a doubling of revenue....ie we go from an average of 14 paying practices for the first Qtr to 28 for the second Qtr.

meaning 14 = $126,000..... so 28 = $252,000 (28/14 x $126,000). So far so good.....

However if Sentry's then 6 practices had not paid up yet at end of the March Qtr that meant that revenue from only 8 practices (14 less Sentry's 6) was included in that $126,000....

NOW meaning 8 = $126,000..... so 28 = $441,000 (28/8 x $126,000).

Now if we ASSUME (despite the fact that we cannot.... but just for the sake of the exercise we will) that ALL practices will be fully paid up as of Jun 30th then that figure of $441,000 is the projected quarterly revenue OWED (not necessarily yet paid) to IAM. Not bad.

Now as I said.... this is just a mathematical exercise using comments from management and a couple of assumptions such as everyone pays up on time, all practices are equal in effect on the moving averages etc etc. which we KNOW are unlikely to be precisely correct, however the bare bones of the figures makes for nice reading... does it not ? There are any number of reasons that the above calculations can be erroneous, however it shows what's possible with a deeper look at the wording of anns. and some basic maths.


NB: If we were to take "significantly higher" on boarding to mean 6 per month rather than 5 then the figure would be $472,500.... and NONE of these calculations include the portal or even an increase in the workload coming from of all the original practices either.