SMN 2.08% 49.0¢ structural monitoring systems plc

Target share price

  1. 2,092 Posts.
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    "In total, downtime and man time savings total between $43,200 and $86,200 per plane per year. The World Airliner Census 2013 puts the current number of commercial aircraft (both regional and mainline) at around 25,0009 with the top 10 mainline aircraft (CVM’s most relevant market) at 16,824. The number of aircraft has grown at 5%/year for the last 20 years and is expected to grow at a similar rate for the next two decades11. Given this market size and using our 737 figures as an average, the total potential for CVM technology could be as high as $1.3 billion/year growing to $3.4 billion in 20 years, when accounting only for large planes."

    The above has been copied from MacEquities report dated August 2015.

    Taking the lower figure of $1.3 billion SMN should be able to conservatively come up with a net profit of at least $1 billion & with approximately 100 million shares issued, this would make a profit per share of $10. That being the case & based on a P/E of 15, the share price could be $150.00. Now at first glance that would appear ridiculous but when you consider that the number of aircraft is expected to rise by 5% annually & that these figures only apply to commercial aircraft the $150.00 may not be totally out of the question.

    There are other applications available for CVM technology including about 147,000 unsound bridges in the U.S.A. & Canada. The figures also do not take into account military aircraft which could increase the above figures dramatically.

    You are welcome to pull my figures apart & tell me where I am wrong. I know that all commercial airlines may not take up the technology but the pressure would be on them to do so, particularly when there is a financial advantage to do so.

    The current share price would have almost treble before I consider selling any of my holding which represents about 0.24% of all issued shares. Even then I will not sell any more than 15% of my holding. Future dividends should be too good to ignore.
 
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