Ann: Ruby Count Grows to 147,000CTS October Auction Confirmed, page-85

Evening all,

A great report, and muted share price - all good for me, please hold down for a couple more days, that's all I ask.

Firstly @ekismal - sadly the smallest size is 2mm, not 2ct. But this doesn't matter.

I've also run some numbers from the last 2 JORC sections to summarise where the inventory should get to:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8
0	Report date	Jorc date	Total Rubies	Artisinal	Mined	Tonnes	cubic m	ct per tonne
1	16/08/2017	14/08/2017	147,052	126,428	20,624	95,031	61,311	0.22
2	28/06/2017	26/06/2017	120,397	110,776	9,621	64,273	41,467	0.15
3	Change	7wks	26,655	15,652	11,003	30,758	19,844	0.07

So, in the 7 weeks between report dates, we've increased our mined rubies by 2x. That's really exciting news. Further, the data supports the detail of the announcement. Note the cubic m to tonnes weren't detailed so I used same rate as per 26/6 report. I assume weights should be close.

However, the recent mining in ct/tonne is 0.36ct/tonne (which is why the total average has increased). This, added to the plant processing confirmed at full capacity is the by far the best news in the report IMO.

Note - The current 30.758k tonnes processed in the last 7 weeks is only 879 tonnes per day assuming 5 day week (or 732 if you assume a 6 day week).

The best news is 0.36ct/tonne * 1500tonnes per day = 536 carats per day. So, the 500-760 in the report is supported by the evidence.

So, where do we get to in inventory on current trajectory (assuming stopping mining on 19/10):

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7
0	Rubies/wk	Artisinal	Mined	Total per week	Weeks  left (to 19/10)	Total added	Close stock
1	Current	2,236	1,572	3,808	9	34,271	181,323
2	Forecast	2,236	2,683	4,919	9	44,271	191,323

The current is based on historic recovery (ie only 879 tonnes per day) the Forecast assumes 1500tpd and only 5 days per week.

Somewhere between 181k and 191k. If we step to 6 days a week we get ~196k carats.

Given the variability and upside, we'll get there IMO.

Finally, the auction should give us conservatively something like $14.6m USD @ 90% clearance with really conservative assumptions:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0	Source	Rubies	USD/Ct	USD outcome
1	Mined	44,771	200	8,954,290
2	Artisinal	146,551	50	7,327,572
3	Total	191,323		16,281,862
4		Ave	85.10	14,653,676

Yabba-dabba-doo.

PS - remember dont tell anyone yet, a few more days please.

Cheers
Capt Amazing