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Lithium Comparisons Part 2, page-21

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BytheHorns

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30/08/17

17:33

Post #: 26873739
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Originally posted by adoredmemories ↑

Hi All,

@blastfurnace @SuperNinja thoughts?

Thought I would share an interesting opinion from someone who responded to the "Lithium Comparisons Part Two" via Linkedin. Their response was;

HI Steve, Thanks for your comparison, I think Argosy Minerals Limited (AGY) should be your pick of the bunch. I think they have enormous up side considering their share price is sitting at around 3 cents and their recent announcements showing they have everything in place to become a serious Lithium contender. My question to you is – Why are investors not being alerted to the fact that lithium spodumene supply chain in comparison to lithium brine supply chain is allot more costly, slower for a return on investment, bigger investment needed to get started, less return on investment overall and a lot more damaging to the environment thus our planet? The biggest point of difference between spodumene vs brine supply chains is their carbon footprint and subsequently their overall costs along their supply chains to produce 1 tonne of pure lithium. The reason why Lithium is hot at the moment is because we need to save the planet, and a company’s carbon footprint to produce lithium must be considered along its supply chain. If investors have any type of conscience they would redirect their investment to a process that is carbon neutral like a brine process company. For me and allot of people in the world, there is no point in making a battery if we just filled up the sky with emissions to produce the Battery and it doesn’t out way the batteries life cycle of emissions savings. The first stages of extracting the Lithium in the supply chain needs to be considered. My understanding with the brine process, is that these companies simply pump up the brine water and dry it out in ponds with the sun, collected it up and put it through their plant to produce a high grade lithium and sell it at around $10K per tonne. Compared this to Spodumene which is a typical mining operation that Drills, Blasts, Digs, Hauls, Dumps, Crushes, Washes – all energy hungry, mostly diesel machinery process, before selling their product to China for only $600 per tonne, where China then has too cook it at super high temperatures and do whatever else to it, to get to the final high grade lithium which they then sells for $10K per tonne. Where is the logic of all the environmentally conscience investors, Brine is cheaper, faster and cleaner to produce in the lithium brine supply chain compared to the hardrock carbon emitting/carbon negative lithium spodumene supply chain, not to forget the return on investment is slower with Spodumene, greater investment is needed to get going and the return on investment percentage is allot less. It does not make sense to me, that such critical decision making information is not transparently disclosed to the worldwide investors and market places regarding lithium supply chains, what are your thoughts on this? Where's peoples conscience or are they being told half the truth? They can not be all greedy investors because if they were, they would actually back the brine process because its seems to have a better return on investment?

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This guy called it as he saw it… Bravo !!

Hope others liked it back then and picked up a slice or three…
And it's definitely not too late either. In 2 years this could be a 1B MCap !!
#takeovertarget

See Billy's post as well from this thread - give it a like

Originally posted by billyen ↑

UPDATE:

AGY is now officially mining Lithium!
While the others grab land (and hope there is Li on it) or drill to find Lithium, AGY has started...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20161118/pdf/43d0gy3j74s3v9.pdf
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-rincon-development-site-works-commence.3052634/#.WC81ntR9548

AGY have the former GM of FMC's Argentina's Lithium operations running the show on the ground in Argentina. Pablo Alurralde has over 20 years mining Lithium at one of the BIG3. No other Lithium explorer can come close to AGY "Boots on the ground" management experience.

Pablo Alurralde also has 3 Li mining/extraction/processing PATENTS to his name.
https://www.google.com.au/patents/US20120141342

These patents should show a improvement over the current speed/process of extraction and the Li grade, which determines the final price.

AGY will have a small sample amount of LCE in 10 months. 100-150 tons.
This is stage 1 and is basically to work the kinks out of PA's new process. If it's grade is close to what ORE is currently shipping AGY will be looking around 1.8M in sales.
According to industry experts (DYOR) ORE's final grade isn't great. I don't know if this is due to ORE's Salta (land) they are mining from or their LI extraction process.

I don't know what margin AGY will have on the sample amount but, I don't expect it to be high, as they are starting OPS. I do expect and hope the the margin of stage 2 is close if not better then ORE's recent results which were 60%. (That's a good business is be in. x2 Microsoft's margins!)

ORE LCE shipment have ranged from 6k-12k over the past 6-12 months. The last month shipments have been increasing to 10k-15k!
(http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/1st-export-17-000-usd-t.2784389/page-6#.WC9I2NR9548)

From reports I'm seeing which you can Google yourself, suppliers are getting desperate for supply as there isn't much. I don't know if ORE's grade has improved or if the recent Li supply shortage is now here? As we all know the spot price at the beginning of the year got red hot and there were prices of 20k-25k. I hope we get back to those levels by the time AGY starts stage 2 of RINCON.

However, as PA's patents are from 2012 and he's bringing his 15+ years of BIG 3 GM Li mining experience. I'm going to say the grade should be better. We'll find out in 10 months.

AGY's stage 2 is set to start in 12 month, after stage 1 is finished. The target amount for stage 2 is 1500 tons of LCE. As Stage 1 has now started I believe Stage is a lot more likely to happens as we are currently being exposed to 80+ public Lithium stocks saying to are looking for Li...or have found some Li working towards production. AGY has NOW started production and is fast tracking.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20161031/pdf/43cjxly1wn6yw1.pdf

AGY don't need to build a 50,000-100,000 plant. 5-10k of production is ample for Rincon. AGY also has 2 other Li projects in Argintina that could fast track production once Stage 2 is under way. Each with 5k-10k?

Once AGY produces it's 1500 tons of LCE...I'd expect the 2-3 of the worlds Giga factory would be ramping up major production and the Li supply would be tight. This combined with AGY having worked out any kinks from it's sample test batch....I'd expect a conservative LCE of 15k-20k.

At a price of 17K... AGY would fetch price of 25 million for it's 1500 tons stage 2 LCE.
I'd also hope for a margin of at least 60%. This should be done in 24 months!

Mr. Alex Molyneux AGYs chairmen who lives in China and speaks mandarin and is currently CEO of ASX 200's Paladin EnergyDN. Alex is also a former investment banker and has a reputation as a deal maker.

Needless to say. One can easily assume a off-take deal would be forth coming shortly as AGY management have stated at the AGM they were getting calls already...that was 6 months ago.

This above doesn't include AGY's Cobalt/Copper/Gold project with is a JORC and could have 200-400M in metals at it's Wee Macgregor site in QLD.

-AGY has no debt.
-Heavy insider ownership.
-Current MC of 20M.
-AGY has a JORC with Cobalt which is going to see dramatic price raises in the next 6-18 months.
-Thinly traded.
-Off-take deal with-in 6-12 months?
-Brokerage coverage hopefully coming soon.

-It's possible that Stage 1 and 2 production estimates have been under-estimated as is sometimes the case for obvious reasons.

You can find a wealth of solid research on AGY here...
http://hotcopper.com.au/asx/agy/

All the above is IMO...DYOR!!!

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