multiple of, page-20

Wow. What a bunch of hot air.

2Kg of lithium per car? Go to wikipedia you geniuses and figure out the energy density of lithium-cobalt-hydroxide batteries and you will discover that a 2Kg Li-Co-OH battery would power...not much at all aside from the lights and radio. By comparison, current hybrids use an 80kg NiMH battery which actually has better performance from a use and duty cycle, equivalent capacity, etcetera.

So, lets say you can get away with 80kg for a hybrid, and you slash fuel consumption in half for the US auto fleet, you will need to supply the world market of 20-30M vehicles with 600-800,000 tonnes of lithium to tur the fleet from conventinal to hybrid cars.

Admiralty has that 600-800,000t of lithium. Maybe a bit more. But at the current rate of extraction, it will take 200 years to turn over the vehicle fleet to Li-Co-OH batteries. Or they raise their rate of extracton to double, and now have a 200 year mine life, and STILL cannot supply the world's automotive hybrid battery needs. Or they quintuple production to 100,000tpa and STILL cannot meet the battery needs, suck the Rincon Salar dry, and have a mine life of 80 years or less.

One thing you speculators do not know, because you are not geologists or hydrogeologists, is that the rate of recharge will ultimatelydetermine the amount of water available to flush the salts into the evap ponds. If ADY pumps too much, too fast, they will drain the aquifer. Therefore, a salient point to ask ADY is: what is the gross olumetric recharge capacity of the Rincon Salar? How accurate is this (+/- 15%?) and how mmuch lithium could you produce consistently from this volume of brine?

If they answer that question - and there are myriad reasons they won't - you'll have your answer to how much ADY can expand its production to, sustainably. Odds are, it won't meet Toyota's wild ambit claims to make hybrids. Odds are, if they expand their plant to the capacity of the brine lake, they WILl flood the market.

On that point, the claims that ADY can expand infinitely to meet a 1.5Mtpa market in lithiu (10x demand growth) is fallacious. That's their whole reserve, for a start. Secondly, supply/demand dictates as Rincon Salar comes on and produces 12% of the world's lithium, prices will fall from $6000/t. If they produce more and more, Greenbushes will go the way of the dodo, and then Wingina - both highcost mines. GXY's Cattlin Creek willlook crap if the pprice softens a lot, and could be forced out. So ADY gets a monopoly, and is stuck having to produce moreand more, until finally it can't, and prices remain nailed to somethin a lot less than $6000/t.

I mean, which other commodity can anyone name where demand has gone up an order of magnitude and prices have stayed high? Or anything where demand has gone up ten times within any period of time shorter than a decade?

I mean, listen to the argument. ADY has 80% of the world's lithium, according to some larrikins. It can meet a ten times upside in demand which on a per year basis equates to its entire 400 year reserve. And it can expand exponentially, and will keep a 400 year mine life? Its maths so simple even the nincumpoops at StateOne can do them.

So, all these bulls are artists of some kind of faeces. Bull faeces. Caveat emptor.