Have been contemplating the seriously negative mood that pervades not just hot copper but the whole petroleum sector these days. The cynic in me sees a lot of the commentary in the press as no more than fluff pieces feeding the alternate pump and dump cycle where the big money is made. There is no doubt that most journalists and most of the educated class know that the era of oil is over.
So I have been very disappointed that there has not been a serious sell off of FAR. I am in the red on my FAR investment and am seriously over-invested considering the risk profile. Part of me would like to see the negativity succeed in loosening a pile of shares. At 5 or 6 cents my greedy self would find it irresistible. Would my daily auditor notice a few more million if the total value remained the same.
So come on all you regular negative posters, please can’t you make your post a little less predictable and repetitive. You need to convince a whole more informed group. I think the theme around Peak Oil Use seems more effective and noticed even some of the regular bulls are talking “lower for longer” and “not see $80 again”. You need a lot more of this more subtle approach if you are going to undermine the value that is starting to appear in this little stock. Come on guys and girl you can do it. Just an aside, thanks GO for stopping saying I think FAR is worth $1 and now saying I forecast it could hit $1. I must add I think there is a very good chance.
Why would I even contemplating buying a speculative stock in such a dead end resource, in Africa, with endless capital raising ahead, a small specialist exploration company with personal with limited production experience but risky dreams of becoming a producer in a resource which is in overproduction and being used less into the future. No wonder the smarties are getting out of it as quick as they can. Ok, I may be wrong and please don’t read this as advise however I have been here before and it has been good.
Do you remember Dr Copper? I am going to get a little vague now as I have run out of data for today and the food and wine as i shoot across the Spanish country side at 250kph make me a little dull and so dates and times are indicative only. Lets say 20 plus years ago anyone who had invested in copper exploration, no matter how successful the test results were considered fools. Copper had dived to less than $1/lb, every comentator and futurologist could tell you the market for copper had no future. China had worked out how to substitute aluminium alloys for copper in power transmission,plastic for plumbing, fibre for telacom and data and miniaturisation in IT all meant demand into the future would continue to die, add to that the mega mines in South America and copper was in a death spiral. I know my broker kept telling me to cut my losses and embrace the future. Fast forward 10 or so years, all guesses at the future demand for copper had been totally wrong for a range of reasons and as copper hit $4.50/lb big mining companies could not get enough of any good idea in the copper space. I had clung to only one of my original copper stocks. A couple of geologists with a track record had set up in Perth but when copper died they could not raise money here and duel listed in Toronto, found a very big deposit in Africa, raised money from European Development Bank to create the biggest copper mine in Africa. The Development Bank supported them because their plans all involved sensitive local involvement. I think the shares got down to 4 cents during this time. They were smart guys who the brokers trusted and they managed to get away a few capital raising and purchased a number of undeveloped copper deposits around the world, mostly Africa and Middle East and for peanuts. Of course the commentariat bagged them mercilessly and the share price followed a similar pattern to what all you long termer here are used too.
When everyone had given up on Dr Copper and the smart money had gone elsewhere someone noticed demand had been exceeding supply for a year or so and the warehouse in London and Shanghai were looking a bit empty. Copper was suddenly reaching all time highs. Barrack Gold from Canada decided being the biggest in Gold was not enough, Copper was the future. Here was a company with one huge new very profitable operating mine and some of the most interesting undeveloped deposits in the world. It had to be worth US$5-6 bill they decided and banged down their money. It was sad to see all the dreams of an International copper company based in Australia go, but sometimes the money is too good. Was it six or seven years ago I got a nice check in the mail, mine was only small compared with some of the other stubborn old fools, I had held for 16 years.
So GO, et al, you can see how I remain stubbornly optimistic in the face of all your reasonable arguments. For me I cant help thinking FAR is deja vu all over again. What, with smart Geo as CEO who spend about as many days per month in Africa,London and Nth Am as my Geo friends did, a small and agile team of highly motivated employees and board, a world class resource with a road to production around 2021 and very profitable cash flow fundamentals, accumulating a smorgasbord of prospective leases with little value at the moment, highly regarded across Africa which can mitigate some of the sovereign risk doubt ,I just can’t help but get excited.
Wow, look at that sentence. I would make my employees rewrite that into a paragraph of six sentences.
On a sultry Sunday afternoon that is my contribution for a while. I know it sounds like I have made up a fairy tale bases on my my hopes for FAR. Before you start ripping into me just see if you can do a search on Equinox Resources.What a wonderful topsy turvy ride that was.Will be sweet if FAR is a tenth as good
Yes I got a Cheque/Check in US dollars
MMM
FAR Price at posting:
7.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)