game set and match, page-48

Fundamentally and technically the prospects for agm ,going forward are looking less ugly than the last time I posted ,but no need to break out the champagne yet.

At the end of july AGM had about 46 million in the bank,courtesy of the "generous" purchase and settlement of shares bought by Jinchuan at 80 cents ,ouchh..

They also have their foot on about US$ 45 million access to finance to be provided by Society Generale and ANZ,although I hope that SG does not do a Banque Paribas ??.

In any case it is unlikely AGM will be coming cap in hand for more money from the shareholders any time soon.So much for the good news .

The nickel price went down ,3 month LME ,to US$ 26625,down 600 dollars on Friday's closing price .

Capman provided us with some info where Goldman Sachs stated that supply will top demand by 52000 tons in 2007.We are also noticing an increase in stocklevels at LME ,albeit from a very low base.

As we still do not know with certainty when nickel slurry will flow lat AGM lower prices and increasing stockpiles don't paint a pretty picture.

I am also wondering,speculating how tight the agreement is with Jinchuan and whether there are safety valves for Jinchuan in the future if the spot nickel price falls below a certain level(ala coles/wesfarmers).

I previously commented about AGM'S cavalier attitude to announcements,providing timely info etc.

So Ichecked their website this morning which duly had to-day's date on it,so far so good.

Lo and behold and I quote" .. the mill is well advanced ....ahead of schedule which targets a 4Q-07 start-up"

Is that calendar year or financial year???!!!???.

Technically ie if you believe in the charts we are still in a wave 4 retracement which should stop at the critical level of 60-62 and is sort of holding to-day.

Any violation of that level and next support is somewhere at 52-55,hard to imagine but a remote possibility.

Melua's suggestion of around 35 could only be contemplated if we had a melt down of the stock market ,say 20%-30% or a nickel price of 10000 US$,let's hope a remote event.

By the way there is a mining conference in Sydney 9-11 Sept where AGM will give a 20 minute presentation .

Be there if you are serious about mining in general and AGM specifically.

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