I just wanted to touch on the post by
@kcheers in the other thread, charting, so I decided to start a new one to try get some discussion going in a more appropriate place.
Many holders claiming we are now on the upward trajectory to heaven after one good day.
Im not sure whether those same posters held over the last six months because as most have seen, this isn't the first time that this has happened. Im hoping this time is different but I'm not holding my breath.
The case that we are very close now doesn't hold for me. There is another lithium play that will be in production sooner yet its also still stuck in a holding/ranging pattern. That company approx 6 months away from first shipment. PLS is approx 9 months.
When we look at what could be considered as the best barometer we have to look to GXY.
It was range bound for a couple of months and didnt gain traction until less than two months out from first production. So IMO its likely that there are funds sitting on the sidelines but dont see too much reasons to throw money into the pot so far from production. There is a lot that can happen globally and PLS wise between now and then so they will keep there capital in their pocket till closer to the time.
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There is also this factor to consider. Who is going to soak up all this lithium due to come online in the next couple of years. I expect some guys on here can comment on this, has all this quoted supply out to 2019 been contracted or will it saturate the market?
I have no doubt demand is increasing and will continue to do so but is demand strong enough to soak all this capacity. There will no doubt be delays to some of these projects but thats a lot of lithium that needs a home even with one or two delays here.
So in response to my initial question there defiantly is risk ahead although some think its a risk free multi bagger from here. PLS dont have any locked in prices (does anybody know the floor price and is that for 5 years?) so by big funds holding off investing in PLS for another ~9 months its giving themselves time not only to see if demand keeps rising for EV's, Storage - lithium, to see if prices stay steady or keep rising but also if the purported supply that is supposed to come online is sticking to that schedule which may put pressure on PLS returns. So I believe we could have some range trading for another 4-6 months yet.
(20min delay)