*****ATTEMPTED VALUATION*****
ASSUMPTIONS :
8.58Mlbs(3.9M tonnes) U resource
*IGV of resource applied - 10%
*Exchange rate of US$0.85 = au$1.00
* 251,079,285 shares and options (fully diluted)
*Current uranium spot price US$110/lb.
Only using the 8.58M lbs (20% of B4M) for these assumptions, the inground value (IGV) of the oreboby equates to US$943M.
8,580,000 lbs x US$110 = US$943,800,000
It is customary to use 10% of the IGV of the resource when attempting to value a resource company company in it's early stages such as AGS....
10% of $943 million = $94.3 million
$94.3M / approx 251 million shares fully diluted = US$0.37 per share
Applying an exchange rate of AU$1.00 = US$0.85 gives us a value of $0.442 per AGS share
So, on the basis of the current resource of 3.9M tonnes, and using 10% IGV,I would consider AGS comes in at approximately $0.45
Due to the likely method that will used in Beverley being ISL, and the high grade nature of the deposit, it will be a far cheaper and thus far more profitable venture than others....so The % of IGV applied could be far greater. I would say around 20%-25% would be O.K
10% IGV- $0.45
20% IGV- $0.90
30% IGV- $1.35
Of course, these numbers are only a very rough guide, and they do not in any way reflect the very significant exploration upside at Beverley, which will definately increase AGS' resource base, nor does it take into consideration other projects such as Maldon gold.
I was a huge fan of AGS, and I held a considerable holding, but in my opinion the initial jorc was far less than I, and the market in general had anticipate, and I sold immediately on the news. For me, a market cap of $600M (AGS at $2.30) could not be justified given a known resource of only 3.9M tonnes, no matter how great the exploration upside.
Good luck to all holders.
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