Future Cashflow & Rerate!!! ( cashflow projection @ 12 September 2017 ), page-196

Alright I thought I would post something today because I can see a lot of overoptimistic posts in here. Of course, everyone has the right to post what he thinks will be the results of MUS during auction but in my case I will only stick to what we know from MUS announcement and GEM JORC. I understand that's really exciting to be part of MUS family but throwing some unrealistic numbers on HC is disrespectful to people who did a hell lot of research since the last few months. Moreover it will not help the company by creating a sentiment of over promised and under delivery.

There is zero speculation below. Just published numbers by MUS and public answers from CJ during last meeting questions.

Expected quality of rubies:
# Ann 4th Sept 2017: 176,500 total carats recovered. "As of 1st Sept 2017, only 29,669 carats recovered from Plant" (page 14 of announcement). So rest of carats recovered from Artisanals = 146,831
# Ann 12th Sept 2017: 277,000 total carats recovered. "As of 9th Sept 2017, only 35,810 carats recovered from Plant" (page 14 of announcement). So rest of carats recovered from Artisanals = 241,190

From these published numbers we can easily conclude 3 things:
1) Carats from Plant (and so from new lease) only represent a small proportion of total carats. High proportion of carats in inventory are from Artisanals (90%).
2) Between 1st of Sept and 9th of Sept, production from Plant increased by 6,141 carats = 768 carats per day. This number is very close to previous published rate of 760 carats per day (Ann 16th Aug 2017). It means the Plant is working at full capacity (1,500 tonnes per day with one shift) since at least early August and recovery is stable: ~760 carats per day. Recent improvement in production is not coming from Plant.
3) Finally, between 1st of Sept and 9th of Sept, production from Artisanals increased by 94,359 carats = 11,795 carats per day. Recent huge improvement of production is coming almost exclusively from Artisanals.
This last point is crucial as it tells us that averaged quality of rubies during auction will come at >90% from Artisanals.

So now the question is what's the quality of rubies recovered from Artisanals? Announcement 16th Aug 2017, page 5: "Encouragingly, the colluvial/elluvial gravels are delivering very high-quality rubies (desirable colour and clean stones with limited cracks/fractures), augmented by MIXED ruby qualities from the artisanals development program. This will make it possible to provide rubies ACROSS A WIDE RANGE OF QUALITIES to the market and will assist in the likely success of the company during auction".
To summarize it means more than 90% of our rubies will be mixed qualities (high quality, low quality and commercial). So what about our Plant? Announcement 16th Aug 2017, page 1: "Plant working at full capacity with CONSISTENT daily recovery of high quality rubies". Page 2: "This has resulted in the plant delivering CONSISTENT daily recoveries of high-quality rubies totaling 500 to 760 carats/day". These 2 statements do not mean we recovered 100% or 90% or even 50% of High quality rubies. It only means that WHATEVER the proportion of High Quality rubies (could be 20%, 50% or more), this proportion is CONSISTENT (does not vary across time).

My personal research only based on published numbers makes me think we should have something between $120-170 per carats. Of course this is just my personal opinion and i THINK it is also realistic to expect ~$200 per carats. Based on above I do not think we will have more than that but I'll be very happy to be wrong!

Happy for you to comment.

Cheers