ramblings of a curious man, page-4

Levitt Partners reckon best place for yanks to invest in now is overseas cos USD is gonna soon go into freefall and interest rates are gonna start hiking up in attempted support (must be reading the GORM) .... notwithstanding rates were just CUT by 50 basis points tonite ........ with their #1 investment destination now being NIGERIA !!!!

Now THATS gotta be telling us something hey.

The GORM adequately covers whats happening now and where it might well go from here.

Everyone is asking where to invest in now. Cant understand why cash at call is never considered an option. Best one atm for mine.

Capital preservation should be priority now until we know whats really going on and that will only be drip-fed to us over coming weeks, tho October could be a doozey. So in line with the GORM I have built my warchest and am prepared for the bargains of a lifetime coming up in real stox if Im right. The cats are dead and wont be bouncing much IMO.

Be measured and patient cos IMO we have the excesses of around 13+ years to unwind inc an over-extended equity market pump since the lows of Oct 12 2002.

I look at the BIG pix and see a rising 21 year market since a start around DJIA 700 in 1980 ending with a D/T high in 2001. Then an over-extended "B" rally in the ensuing Bear from the 7200 "A" low only just recently ending.

21 FIBO years up, so feels "cosmically" good to me we will see a 13 year bear market with 2001 start.... 13 being the next Fibo level down from 21 ...... with lows coinciding with a Kondratieff cited resources peak circa same year viz 2014.

That would be consistent with a GORM SEVERE STAGFLATIONERY environment driven by debt-default asset deflation (stage 1 in progress and triggered by derivative default) coincident with paper currency devaluation-driven cost push inflation (pump prime).

And if u think we cant get a 75+% fall in the stock indices over this time, consider what number u come up with if say, corporate earnings fall by ONLY half and megabear market P/E ratios balance out to more historically realistic 7 instead of current and which would be more consistent with likely higher interest rates coming. Consumers losing their homes might cause that.

I reckon HIGHER interest rates from here cos there will be a competing scramble for remaining liquidity in any major credit crunch in first instance (ala early 90s here for them who recall) and later fuelled further by attempted support of free-falling currency.

This is my MACRO view over target unwind period next 6 years and ignoring the daily paranoiia likely to increase from here until everyone is finally exhausted.

US FED knee-jerk action of dropping interest rates tonite is only a bandaid. Instead of letting Nature clean out the system like they should (should have done so in 1993), they pump the balloon further and set it up for a bigger fall.

Greenspan in 1998 said the FED would never again bale out the speculators after the LTCM debacle ....... and that was ONLY 6 billion bucks worth of default but enough to crunch the DJIA about 20% in an instant (and they gave those turkeys a Noble prize for creating a model for financial destruction which everyone uses now !). LIES. What next ??? Its so much BIGGER now.

Cutting rates is a wrong and desperate move IMO and designed to buy some more time for the instos to unwind in an as orderly fashion as possible at the expense of Mr average ....... and why not, someone else needs to be holding the empty bag at the end of this.

These are my personal thoughts and refer to the western capitalist system. It needs TIME to fully unwind and rebalance toward a truer "globalisation" with the west FALLING to meet the east in first instance. We are IMO witnessing the beginning of the fall of the neo-Roman Empire, tho the seeds for such were planted in 1971.

Having pre-empted such a scenario from as far back as April 2000, I prefer to now stand aside and wait for the dust to settle and bring into view the firesales. I personally have moral issues against shorting at others' expense and dating back to 9/11 experiences. Am a project development backer, not trader.

I sincerely believe CMR will emerge a contrarian champion thru this with all my price / time targets intact, but have to see where the market takes it first .... so gotta closely watch any margin situations and PLAY IT SAFE. I will be looking to add at the pivotal lows. Dont know if the 3rd marker buoy is gonna be it, even if we rally to the 4th in meantime (?)

I am confident with my GORM and Ark Compass theories for my investment strategy and look beyond the current storm. The storm aquires "perfect" status when forex repatriation of USD coincides with falling equity, bond and property markets ...... the total dump of US assets. Hasnt happened broadly enough yet although early moves toward JPY first starting to show. Saw this mentioned first in Puplava's perfect Storm series a few years back ....... theres an Olympian guru of the highest order.

For now cash is king, debt is dangerous (or much worse) IMO. Later tho, cash will start losing its value cf hard assets .... resources supercycle. I think we have an interim market low coming up around Rememberence Day, with effects filtering thru to the real economy and taking next year and beyond to unwind.

During this time, CMR will be earning good bucks to add to its debtless cash position with AUD buffering any metals weakness. I expect divvies tostart heading our way in 2008. A good position to be in as the opportunities of storm shipwrecks appear.

But from what low ? I'm gonna be looking for it and letting the market decide for me.

During 2008, I think CMR will be hitting new highs as the DJIA is searching for its lows but I wont be taking any NEW major long possies until after full disclosure of hedge fund redemptions post Sep 30.

Be careful of October. Any market rallies before then are IMO for suckers.

All of above in my personal opinion to suit my personal investment strategies. Being a conservative man I wouldnt be sleeping nites if I was in any kinda unmanagable debt right now.

Educational and exhilirating times.

(Dont forget today is options expiry fudge time day in the US)