That's great research. I agree with your price at end of June, which would make end of September be the approximate test date for the average to increase above $38 given the exponential rise in price around and just after then.
My comments about the 160% were to do with the fact that prices have been above 16c since the start of the month with heavy volumes meaning the 160% VWAP condition has possibly been met (or will be imminently) and Lynas could issue a notice to buy the bonds back. Not that they can, or would want to, just that they could.
I wondered if that is factoring into MtKs desire to convert.
LYC Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)