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bweerniedeed

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26/09/17

11:10

Post #: 27458679
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Originally posted by doctornoh ↑

On this I cant help but think Turnbull will have to implement export restrictions as the do nothing and talk tough routine to date is not going to help his dwindling poll numbers. There is nothing like bad polls to get some consensus within a political party for a policy action that is, you cant help but say, decidely un-Liberal party. We all know that cost of living is a key poltiical issue- electricity prices that are doubling arent going to win any votes.

Long term east coast gas prices are being quote at up to $14 while we export LNG at $5-$6. We are basically destroying east coast manufacturing and exporting away our competitive advantage. Its not hard to say that what money the export companies are losing on their LNG projects they are making up by selling gas at obscene rates to domestic users. How is it that an industrial user in Japan can import LNG at under $6 yet a manufacturing or chemical plant in NSW that uses gas as feedstock has to pay $12?

if Henry hub starts rising too fast you may see the same domestic political pressure arise in the US as well- this is wherer a fully permitted shovel ready project is de-risked politically.

Unlike the US which has developed its resources fully the long term solution of developing our own gas resources or settting a price on carbon that allows investment in renewables with gas as intermittent baseload power I just can see happening, with East Coast moratoriums on CSG and exploration and the climate change skepticism of the right wing of the Liberal party. The State goverments will just not have the will or skill to assuage community fears around gas mining and farming being able to co-exist with world class regulatory and protections regimes.

This to me only leaves export restrictions- which coincidentally a lot of global players could just satsify from their global supply portfolios anyway and make the same profit directing gas to the domestic market.

Export restrictions in the worlds second largest LNG supplier country hopefully again makes buyers think about portfolio diversification in their LNG supply chains.

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Why do the reports keep saying LNG to the East Coast? Wouldn't most of it be NG supplied through pipelines. Surely you are not going to liquify it and reclassify it all in Australia, are you?

LNG Price at posting: 40.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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