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Pumped Hydro Energy Storage across Australia, page-112

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mjp2

11,088 Posts.

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28/09/17

12:42

Post #: 27518031
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Originally posted by acorn ↑

This coming summer will probably be the big test I think given the closure of Hazelwood . NEMO has made some strategic moves , the gas exporters have committed to more local supply and even things like SA's Tesla battery will have some ( minor ) effect . It will be interesting to see how those changes pan out .

There are significant amounts of renewables coming to the market over the next couple of years although I still believe that storage is the game changer for renewables .

I agree with your comment about change taking longer and then coming quicker . I think that is true for alternative energy technologies now because there is so much going on in the background . The general public aren't aware of this so when the change comes it will seem rapid to them .

As to predicting the future pace of change I think we should hedge our bets here . We could build some new coal generation and then shut it down in 15 years due to low demand . I still think that would be a good investment . There are suggestions of extending the life of existing the life of Liddell in NSW . It is estimated that it might cost $900 mil for another 10 years . I don't think that's a bad idea , especially if they can keep the station running while they do it .
The alternative would have been to replace Hazelwood ( my preference ) as it has all the infrastructure in place although it would be more expensive . The downside is it would take a few years to get done .
I still think this is a reasonable idea though because even if the demand for cfp reduces earlier than expected we can shut down the dirtier cfps first and keep the newest , cleanest ones running till last . This way you are still reducing emissions while maintaing a steady reliable power supply .

One thing people forget is the importance of reliable supply for industry and also the importance of predictible pricing . That should be our number one priority with emissions second . I think we can achieve both with some intelligent planning , especially if we can get the politics out of it .

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I'm open minded about what's best to do and at the end of the day we're keyboard warriors on this.

But I absolutely agree that some conservative choices and costs will most likely be required to keep sufficient capacity through this transition period, to ensure reliability. Power systems are pretty unforgiving if you don't balance demand and supply every second of every day. I think we all agree.

No matter what choices get made around which coal to build/keep etc, you can bet there is a good chance that a different choice will look better in hindsight. Life's great, especially if you are a pollie having to make those decisions publicly.

The power industry hasn't been this sexy for a hundred and fifty years.
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Pumped Hydro Energy Storage across Australia, page-112

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