IMO the downside risk for this company is becoming lower and lower.
As each part of the expansion to 5mtpa is locked in, it will start being reflected in the SP.
I suppose what I am saying is, soon enough the company won't just be valued on future 2mtpa cashflows, but the increasing probability of a 5mtpa operation.
It's going to be an interesting next 6 months;
- 2mtpa mining starts
- Entry into ASX 200
- 2mtpa plant operational
- Cashflows begins
- 5mtpa DFS
- Further offtake and funding announcements re 5mtpa
At 2mtpa we are looking at free cashflows of $200m+ p/a.
At 5mtpa we are looking at free cashflows of $500m+ p/a.
It's not a big leap to see an SP of $1 when cashflows start being received next year. This type of SP would not only be underpinned by a moderate PE on 2mtpa operations, but also the increasing probability of 5mtpa operations.
Cheers!
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