October 01, 2017 - 10:14 PM 436 Reads
Post# 26764877
Hot Copper Post My 2 cents and random thoughts on ARV
Structural drilling It started yesterday these holes will not be assayed these holes are not being drilled to find gold have to be very clear on that, they are being drilled to simply test the depth and consistency of the conglomerate prior to very expensive large diameter drilling.
You don't want to stop drilling after 10m if the conglomerate zone is 20m thick and inversly if some areas are only 5m thick you don't want to drill to 10 and send 1.75 tons of waster material to be assays that would be a huge waste of money.
Large diameter drilling and Trenching Next step is October 15th that will be large diameter drilling the Novo MD has stressed they will be giving visuals updates on the early holes, if they see visual gold they will be reporting it, very important to know and he said assays will be early January this sample are very big and take a long time to process. What can we expect from this trenching and drilling campaign the trenching, what we know is 358 detection thats beeps on the metal detector over an area about 30m x 10m x 30cm deep.
The biggest question about trenching is not will they find gold, we know it's there but how much big are the nuggets they will find, during the live stream we saw 2 examples
image: https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/325-jpg.753600/ I estimate 1-2 gram nuggets
I think reality probably averages out something like this, 6-7g/t from trenching, now keep in mind this is simply nuggety gold, this doesn't account for fine gold, if we go back to our bulk sample we will see that nuggets are just one portion of the gold recovered.
image: https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/fsd554-jpg.753615/
So what about this large diameter drilling
image: https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/453fg-jpg.753618/ Once again it's a question of the nugget effect have a some luck with the drill first hole could pop out at 20 g/t or more, have some bad luck and could be 1-2g/t, so thats why we take a measured view of things and know they will drill many holes and our luck will average out.
image: https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/ter5-jpg.753621/
Once again I think it will average out to 5-7 g/t of gold over time, but that assumption is based on several things consistent distribution of nuggets through out the 10m and the 10m actually being there and not being 1m, things I don't know depth of detection I used 30cm it could be less, meaning bigger resource.
So in reality what are we looking at here if this turns out to be what Novo claims it to be.
So 50% of that to ARV if this is legitimate 6.2Moz-8.7Moz which would all be shallow in a pit amazing, GOR is $600mill for 1.75Moz which they own is their pit they have, for ARV just the nuggets would send them into the billions in Mcap?
I think actually more I wrote a post here that explores the economics of these discoveries and it's amazing 6.2Moz is worth double, profit wise compared to a traditional discovery like CDV/GOR/DCN......
Also 6.2Moz isn't the end of the story we still have to add in medium gold add another 40-60% on top of that it gets crazy quickly on this one, easy to see why company with right land have been bagging.
Now why I am holding ARV if all this is true ARV share of prudy is similar size to DEG when you account for the 50% they have ownership and DEG have less than half the Mcap, yes it certainly is, but with ARV I feel Novo isn't telling the full story.
Interesting when I flip that map around it seems to be that on the other side of that creek we head right back up into the correct elevation for conglomerates for the complete run of our tenement....
Here look I can see not difference in topography on one side of the creek to the other Novo assertion that it simply disappears is backed up by no evidence whats so ever.
When we look at how the area was mapped it's pretty clear that the Mt roe basalt which gold trend runs directly under runs through prudys completely over 7km not the 1.5km Novo is claiming.
Why would Novo do such a thing? well right now they can drill it confirm it and buy ARV out quickly as a project with 1.5km of strike, even if they paid full blown price for 1.5km they know full well it's got 7km+ over 4 times the amount of strike they are paying for!!!
Additional discovery potential to the north, their is a clear extension of the mt roe basalt from prudys to the north and north east, of which ARV exposure to thanks to it's mt oscarwits tenement, I think this ground just as favorable for discovery as any ground that KAI or DEG have, being 100% it's a boom for the company if they can work out how to explore it properly
For me ARV is a stellar buy, we are being held back by Novo, but it can't go on forever prudys land wise is the jewel in the crown, Novo will not be able to hide your extra 5.7km of strike forever, if we resist the quick takeover it will be game on.
2 weeks till drilling, if that drill starts dripping nuggets we will be on the fast track to $2-$4 real quick!
Markedtofuture
(20min delay)