(Sorry, was waiting to hear back from people overseas and some parts of the world are on holidays.)
My old SP trading range
was 28-32 cents before DD was done. Well we bypassed DD and AGY is NOW very new company. Very much different then is was just 2 months ago.
-It owns 77.5% of PA's Rincon project.
-25M+ in the bank shortly (on VERY good terms)
-Fully funded for STAGE 1 and 2...we don't need to hit the capital markets for 12-18 months...that's HUGH!
-Plus, Off-take sales over the
next 5-6 years over 90M with 65+% margins...maybe more!
Now it's time to look forward...
I still believe AGY is dramatically undervalued - it just is...I base this on many things which I'll cover in a bit.
IMO...I see AGY trading between 88-92 cents in 4-6 months. (NOT 12 months.) THIS is my new price target.
Here are some of my reasons:
*In Jan. (3 months away!) we'll be told
the grade PA has done with the first patch of LCE.
As I've said, If you invest in AGY you invest in Jerko. Jerko believes in PA and Jerko also knows the formula. Jerko is a GEO. and even though not a Chemical engineer like PA, he probably get's it. I'd also go so far as to say that QQ and the other MOUs where given some kind of demo or explanation of the process. I know they know because
they agreed to top LCE prices in the Off-Take - "sight-unseen". Otherwise the deal would have read..."QQ will pay $15,000 for 99.++% if it's 97%...it will pay $10k, if it's 91%. etc.
Just think about it...use common sense.
The Chinese also went to Rincon last month...you bet your a$$ they took their top tech guys and probably someone from QL.
So if, sorry WHEN AGY releases a 99. % something (or anything over 97%-they can still sell it for large amounts)...AGY stock is going to take-off. Think...If he can do it in a test run of 150 tones and PA ran one of the BIG 3 LCE plants for 15 years...you know that he's figure it out and large production runs for STAGE 2 and 3 are going to be sweet. It puts AGY on another level and it's the top level.
One would say that PA would get better and refine the process with each new pond?
*
It's true, I don't know more then anybody else but, I do talk to everybody I can. From AGY mgmt to mining experts, Lithium professionals, vet traders, the press, other 708s, investor in other Li stocks, and most importantly for me personally...insiders in the security industry who have seen it all-they hear thing and know some of the people involved
AND what they've done in the past.
Everyone hears things- not just me and I've heard so much over the past 2 years in the Li space. What's cool is I've been able to figure out who's who and who's actually knows what they are talking about in this space.
I also read EVERYTHING I can ASX releases/websites/broker reports...other boards/posters. (Someone had a go at me 12 months and said I should get a job...I'd like too. That way I could only work 8-10 hrs a day...you guys see when and how often I post. I'll be trying to take it easy now, and not post as much.)
These people develop a track record...in front of your eyes. As many of you have...
I've spoken to Jerko. There is just something special there...I can't put my finger on it but, my B.S detector doesn't flinch when he talks.
My gut says...THIS is it. This is the one that's going to keep going up and up.
(I say this with 9 bags in my back pocket on AGY...I could sell at 25 and call it a day...I think that would be massive mistake.)
I'm a hard-core mathematical trader (not charting or technical but, proprietary simple math based- it works too.). I'd sell my mother and yours if my system said sell. I threw it all out the window for AGY after seeing the story, DYOR and talking to Jerko.
Guess what? My AGY buy price is around the high 2's. I was right! I don't fully trust anyone but, I trust me and I even have a track record now with AGY!
WE AREN'T DONE...
I and many other posters get headaches from people NOT ...DYOR. It's painfully simple...
run the LCE tonnage numbers, then possible grade numbers PA can do. Sales, margins, then P.E and valuations. Look at were OTHERS were 2-3 years ago...I'm not even going to say their names. All of them are undervalued too. What could AGY be worth based on all that? Apply a risk/reward ratio. What if this bad thing happens or they can't do that? Add it all up. You ppl. don't...stop being so lazy.
*
Then there's the other side of it which I can't talk about too much. I hear stuff. I think we ALL hear stuff. I guess my edge is I try really hard to hear stuff from the right people. As I said before, you look at the track record of who and what people are saying. Well, I'm hearing really great things about AGY over the next 12 months. Really good things.
You want to know what they are saying?? Hmmm. Well, I write it EVERY DAY and end with...IMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As my interpretation and filtering of what THEY are saying.
Everyone here saw me yap about QL for months...I wasn't sure about it myself sometimes. Yet, not just 1 but a whole bunch of industry people were saying things about it. Then there were the big hints online.
In Canada we have a saying...
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...guess what...It's probably a F'ing DUCK! (I've make a lot of money on that one.)
I say AGY should be trading at 92 cents soon.
Well, has anyone looked at QL...what the Chinese can do...what their needs are...who can help them...how fast they can do it???
I'm looking at a 92 cent duck...
Clear as day...to me!
Some will say ramp...sure...you can sell then. AGY has already came out and said they going to do a Chinese JV in China If it's not a JV with QQ...it will be someone else.
Jerko NOW has EVERYONE attention in China. He'll bloody well get respect too with what just happened and with Alex beside him (Oh...what was Alex's job in China 10 years ago? DYOR.)
Then there's the actual off-take for TOP dollar at Rincon. Still more OT to get for S2...then STAGE 3?
Plus as AGY SP going up...it becomes currency to maybe acquire other projects or merge?
Our own Chairmen is on social media dropping MASSIVE hints about where he see SP's going. Bigger then mine.
What does he see happening what does he know?
It's not hard ppl. it wasn't hard at 3 cents or 12 or 24. Just think and use common sense.
It's a FACT the Jerko and his family and friends own a lot of AGY. Think about it...they really can't sell any shares...can they? Or the SP would go down a lot like some other Li player we know after they sell 25%. A corporate action is in the cards IMO in the future. It's sure as hell going to be higher then 92 cents. (Too add to that...Jerko would NEVER do what that other person did.)
If some of the things I'm hearing happen...we could get there in a week.
It just goes on and on with AGY.
*
Lastly, I've been doing this a while and I think I can read the people and the AGY story pretty good. This is JUST me thinking about it. None of you know me or my experience or ALL the info I've picked up over the past 2 year on Li and AGY.
I KNEW we were undervalued at 2-3 cents-plain as day to me. I knew it at 8, 12, 19, 24 and 31. If I didn't think it would go up...I'd take my F'ing profits and be gone. Even at 24...I knew we were going to 31. 92 will be easy.
I always got upset with my computer because when I typed in AGY...it showed 2.8 cents...I got mad at my computer because it wasn't showing the correct price...It was worth 5-6.
I have lots of computer problem like that now.
Right now my computer is really broken and it's showing AGY at 25 cents...it should be 92.
This is my 3rd one of these SP taregets. I thought we'd hit 5-6 cents...we did. I thought we should be in a 10-12 cent trading range...we did. It's hasn't been easy for me or the other LTers. Look at that flatline of 11 months. It did in every single one of us.
I believe IMO the 3rd SP target is actually conservative. We shall see in 6 months. No pressure Jerko!
As for all the positive details of AGY and it prospects...You can find them here in Onspeeds great post.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/fundamentals.3508506/page-316?post_id=27687816#.WdZVKtR9548
IMO
All the above could be wrong and AGY could go down to 1 cent. Sooo...
DYOR!!!
Ps....I was trying to figure out where to put this post...then I remembered a good one to put it in.
(20min delay)