I have been looking at this stock and was curious. The current estimated EBITDA as announced by the company is $9.5m-$10.5m for FY08.
In FY07 the EBITDA included interest, depreciation and amortisation of $4.2m. Assuming that this will be similar going forward then say I,D&A could be assumed to be consistent in the prior year (most acquisitions did not increase tangible/intangible assets, rather increase to goodwill - assuming no write down in goodwill in the current year) with some increases due to finance charges being for a full year then the PBT on a forecast basis would look something like $5m.
At an assumed PE of say 5.5 (or yield of 18%) the company value would be $28m. This is the current market cap. However the PE of other companies I seem to be able to find in a similar space to TTI appear to have higher multiples in the 13-15 space (this would give a rough valuation of $65m - or $0.55-0.6). Such a high implied yield on future earnings seems to factor in quite a significant portion of risk, has the company consistently failed to meet profit expectations (other than FY07)?
The net assets of the company were $37m at June, allbeit with $50m of intangibles, goodwill and DTA. It looks like the market is significantly discounting these element, however the contracts purchased appear to be strong (e.g. goodwill of $32m on Aldridge has purchased full year PBT in FY07 of $3.36m not all included in FY07 results due to purchase accounting - a yield of 10% would appear to support this on its own?)?
In addition to this I can only find buy/strong buy recomendations from broker reports.
Does anyone have any insights into this company??
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