Iron ore price, page-3794

I short FMG not because I want other investors to "freak out" and sell their shares cheaply but because FMG's fundamentals suggest it is overvalued and shorting is the appropriate investment strategy. The FY2018 Q1 report provides information which can be used to update FY2018 forecasts. My FMG FY2018 now shows the following:
1. IO price = Platts 62% Fe futures to 30/6/18
2. Product Discount = 29%
3. FMG realized price = Platts x 71%
4. FMG C1 = US$12.oo/wmt
5. PAT = US$1.3b or A$1,7b
6. FCF = US$1.7b or A$2.2b

FMG's current MC = A$15.3b so it is trading on a FCF multiple of 7 times and a PAT multiple of 9 times. FMG normally trades on an historic FCF multiple of around 5 times so the current SP is too high. Based on FCF = 5 times, the SP should around A$3.60. Hence I short. This is my stuff only so please DYOR.