Will expand the reasoning for a 2 year timeframe. (this is ignoring speculation gains on results leading to the end of the trial)
Quoting the BYS report "We assume P2b launch in Q4 2017, completion Q1 2019. 3-5 months to ink a deal ~ June 2019" (Page 17 on valuation).
What has changed from then is a quarter extension and the proposition of recruiting far more than 30 patients for the larger outcome of segmented licenses per disease. The large unknown is how many patients extra, and how fast they can recruit - giving a big flux on that timeframe.
So adding a quarter longer than anticipated in the report and another two quarters for the numbers - thats why I say 2 years, and some for an deal to ink. It wasn't so much to rattle stormer but help get the mentality that it will probably take longer than expected.
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