Wow , what a ride the week "we had to have" . Holders reaction to the webcast was
set up from the negativity and constant criticism re timing , remuneration , lack of
contracts...etc etc etc leading up to the webcast. I've never understood the strict
measures used by some investors re the timing of events to assess their investment ,
anyway to each their own....
The actual webcast , was set up in a way , probably by design , to reveal negatives at the
start , ie revenue down , headwinds and then to build up and finish on the positive aspects
of AJX business prospects , well that didn't work . Investors were stunned , well I was ,
hearing from Dirk that revenue was $2.8m down( which was wrong , only $1.6m ) and then
the headwinds and the prospect of another revenue drop . Doing the numbers in my head ,
while listening , had me thinking we were down to $4m revenue for the quarter and then
expecting further drop for the next quarter . The rest of the webcast was a blur . They failed
to get the message across . Had my finger on the button during the emotional meltdown
and the drop in SP , don't know how but I got through to the close and was able to reassess
my position overnight . What I needed was a sounding board , so grabbed my partner who
knows very little about the share market , but she has some experienced in finance..
I'm in the red as are most but feel comfortable in my investment , so much so
that Friday's action did not affect me .After re-listening and rereading the 4c my decision
was made to reassess in the end of FY 2018 .
My reasons are .... 1. my initial reaction to the webcasts was overdone
2. my calculation re a drop in revenue was wrong , firstly the figure
Dirk mentioned was wrong ( revenue down ) , which I confirmed with Ajx via a email,
and secondly , and this is only my perceptions at the time , when Dirk mentioned
headwinds I thought he was referring to Revenue as a whole , it wasn't , they were just
referring to the bedding sector , as far as i'm concerned it's not a big deal " thanksgiving
and Christmas holidays period , ...really .. , not worth a mention....
3. " several other customers have been added in various stages of
ramping up " in the 4c period ,... not recorded as cash receipts
Some have commented that some of their forecasts is just more hot air , nothing that
can be relied upon , ie expecting to start suppling in non wovens and paint and coatings
sector , I won't argue with those that have dismiss these prospects , as wording used
to describe those contracts , " expects " , seems to resonates with the infamous
" imminent " claims , I've chosen to take this new management team on trust , so I believe
them .
The reference of "Near term " sales prospects by Alexium , would again seem to be the
same sort of promises of the past , imo , it's not . Alexium was asked the question , what
does near term refer to ... BB replied ..once we give a customer a product that satisfies
the Specs and their needs required and that customer validates the product with their
customers , then " ball is in the customers court" . Been following Alexium for 4 yrs and
this is the first time they have put up customers on the knife's edge for a decision to be
made to purchase , there's nowhere to hide if they don't happen . There were 4-5 deals classified
as Near term . They would have to be confident ! Happy to be corrected...
Some of our resident technical traders , thanks guys for your imput , were reflecting that
capitulation would need to happen before a reversal in sentiment may occur . Maybe
so , too many holders who have been subjected to the goings on of the past have been
exasperated by the constant down ticking of the share price over 2 yrs , The capitulation
of last week , something" we had to have " ,was the final straw for some . It's been
very hard work to maintain our focus , thanks to those supportive posters over the years .
This is all my opinion and perspective , At these levels the SP is a buy , but my perspective
is medium term ( 3 yrs ) ....glta .....cheers
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