Did a trip around northern NSW last few days. Wheat all out west is stuffed. Only a few crops on long fallow and full zero till will be worth harvesting, say, 10% of planted may go 1 to 1.5 t/h. Short fallow zero till no good either. Chick peas look OK too on long fallow, but only zero till crops.
East of the Newell highway, conventional wheat is pretty poor. Zero till will end up OK. Thankfully most is zero till these days. I saw plenty of wheat that will go 2 t/h or more, especially around the favoured Bellata and golden triangle areas. Chick peas look OK too, and could benefit from rain in next week.
Liverpool plains could still go 5 t/h yet. Early planted crops should finish now, but a bit of rain would guarantee 5t/h. Late planted have a long way to go, and should do 2.5 t/h with no rain, or up to 5t with 75 mls.
Some summer crop gone in. Bit of corn, sorghum and sunnies, but only zero till farmers. Getting too dry now though.
Plenty of farmers been hit with swaps. Heard of million dollar figures been done. Some farms coming up for sale now, not because of drought, but because of swaps. Most of these wheat futures advisers will be looking for a new job next year I think.
Once again, deep black northern NSW soil is going to do the job. I can't see land values dropping. Only rising I think as people realise what this soil can do.
