Biogen agreed to pay US$300 million upfront and as much as a further US$410 million in milestone payments for BMS-986168, a Phase-2 ready drug in development for progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP).
See: (Hottod here)
While I'm still not inclined to believe the cards will fall in favour of a licence: I just don't think a Pharma will hand us big bucks to parlay NNZ 2591 (possibly the superior to the NNZ 2566 molecule, and certainly superior in the bioavailability stakes) into a gen 2 competitor.
So my leaning is to a buy-out - let's park that. I try to look beyond my assumptions and biases yada yada....
The quote above from a favoured correspondent makes a simple evidenced based assertion (read that post it's a cracker...btw) about the potential size of a deal.
And I want to pare it back to one key figure and ask what are reasonable projections to our share price?
Premise: Treagus delivers a US $300 million up front - stop there - let's say it is a licence after all...my assumption is that means that NEU gets a payment of approximately AUD $390 million. And for that, Trofinetide is with a partner, promises of royalties....etc.
If NEU had that AUD $390 million in the bank, disregarding, for now, the promise of future success and royalties, what would you put the share price at?
An Up Front...
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Last
$14.40 |
Change
1.130(8.52%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.840B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $13.80 | $14.45 | $13.53 | $15.04M | 1.062M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 871 | $14.39 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $14.42 | 3650 | 3 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 07/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| NEU (ASX) Chart |