possible value 6:81 per share

Below is what I think should be an appropriate value given to the company. I am still learning so I may be off:

IMP current reserve value is $8.2 billion when allowing for the following variables:

120m barrels
75% interest
US$81 per barrel
$AUS-$US= 0.90

Lets say that there is about a 40% margin. (I had a look at Roc's latest quarterly as a benchmark and they were getting at least 50% in their last 2 quarters so 40% may be conservative)

Gross revenue: 8.2billion x 0.4 = 3.28billion

Lets say it will take them 20 years to extract all the oil. This would equate 600,000 barrels per year or 1,643 barrels per day (once again a very conservative figure)

I'll also use a discount rate of 5% (value of money will be worth 5% less each year) and then we get as the present value of the project as:


3.28 billion / (1.05 ^ 20) = $1.24 billion

Using 182million shares as the fully diluted amount in my calc then the value of each share would be $6.81

I believe the company should be valued at $6.81 per share

Of course any of the variables may change

Any thoughts?