ASH 5.26% 18.0¢ ashley services group limited

Ann: CFO 2017 AGM Presentation, page-15

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  1. 1,158 Posts.
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    Bought in after following this stock for the best part of 2 years.

    The investment case in short:
    - aligned management
    - no debt
    - ascribing no value to training segment, you get a rough EBITDA of 8m+ on the labour hire business alone which has shown substantial operating leverage as revenue grows (0.8% margin growth in a low margin business is phenomenal!).
    - Assuming macro environment continues to improve, as unemployment drops the labour market will presumably be tighter - allowing additional scope for this sort of business to prosper.
    - the labour hire business has actually been growing quite quickly and is being masked by the decline in training division. This growth has continued into Q1 this FY. After rebasing, generally this sort of growth and operating leverage would command a higher PE multiple than the market average.

    Key risk is obviously the lawsuit although I think it is well and truly baked into the current shareprice.

    Agree with others I think a shareprice of double this is quite reasonable for now, although continued execution over a 2-3 year period could see far greater windfall gains. Minimal risk at these prices.
 
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