update on gem offer for kim

I'm sorry if my impatience (for a quick
result) raised false hopes that GEM's
t/o cash may begin to flow soon.

A month ago, I put all my KIM shares into the
GEM offer so that's why I put 'No Position'
and 'No Sentiment' in my HC
compliance declaration with
this update post today.

I phoned GEM today and the most likely
outcomes (as I understand them) are:

(A) High Rate of t/o offer acceptances:

Cash will begin to flow one month after
the offer becomes uncondiional - ie
one month after GEM holds 90% of KIM
and can commander the hold-out 10%.

(B) Mid-range t/o offer acceptances:

Cash for KIM shares offered into (and
now held by) the GEM bid will flow 21 days
after the bid closes on 2 November -
(if aceptances exceed 90%) unless
the close date is extended (cos
acceptances have not reached 90%)
when the cash will flow 21 days
after that extended date if
acceptances by then
have exceeded 90%.

(C) Low range t/o offer acceptances:

When there is no hope of GEM
getting total control of KIM:

All bets are off and the KIM
shares are returned to the
original holders.

But the interesting part is:

Even though acceptances have been
slow to date (rising from about 14%
just after the t/o bid to around 30%
the other day) there has been a lot
of big 'on market' buying going on
(of KIM shares) at 66 cents in
recent days.

Two possibilities:

Big punters are hoping to pick up
4 cents by putting newly bought
shares into the 70 cent offer, OR

Big punters are hoping a
bigger shark than GEM
will offer a bigger price
than 70 cents so the
big punters can make
a motza out of KIM.

In the meantime, little punters sip gin,
take Valium, or pray and hope
the sky doesn't fall on them!

But if Valium, gin and prayer fail to
quell your nerves and twitches...



... try group therapy.