"If German finance is successful it will provide confidence in the whole project so I have a MC target of min $400M and happy to sit in this for a few more years if need"
In a few years time when in production I have no doubt that will come true (jmho of course). It is worth remembering the project NPV is a pre-tax amount of US$500M. As a rough guess assuming tax and currency exchange offset that is around AU$500M. This value will be discounted or risks until all project outcomes are realised, but with a current market cap of AU$50M it is not difficult to imagine that will double to AU$100M on german debt approval, leaving discounting for the following risks: equity funding, project implementation (guaranteed by SMS so should be zero), mining & production execution risks and market pricing risk - so AU$400M is plenty allowance to cover the discounting for those risks until realised.
Imo the 2 main risks now really are the german debt funding (we will know soon) and then the equity funding risk. If both are achieved big chunks of that NPV discounting will be written down to zero.
The only question that remains (unknown) is how many shares on issue will that NPV have to be divided into.
Cheers, Sharks
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