Thanks Burnside.
Graph of Zn LME stockpiles vs price.
http://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php?action=show_diagram&field=LME_Zn_cash
Thinking again about the bigger picture for IBG, the long run investment case is very much on track.
It doesn’t matter whether IBG finance was due a few months ago, or happens by Xmas, or in 6 months, the growing consensus is the Zn price will still be sky high through 2018, supporting this deal.
While China shuts smelting capacity over winter for environmental reasons, Zn metal has to come from stockpiles. Stockpiles falling 40kt per month, so there’s nowhere for the Zn price to go but up.
Dugald River etc can’t supply anywhere near enough to fill the gap, certainly not in 2018, maybe in 2019 depending on the speed of demand growth? But no-one really knows, it could be 2020-21. Even then, off-market stockpiles must be replenished before any true oversupply occurs.
Mine construction timeframe, I reckon 2-3 years realistically, one can take a view on whether global supply will meet demand through the 2020’s… Some are saying the supply response will be big enough for the price to fall back to $1.10/pound. It doesn’t really matter because of where we sit on the cost curve. IBG will be printing serious cash once in production...
And I’ll be around for the mine opening!
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