market share in usa, page-3

Good answer Captain. Potential is great - but impossible to put figures on it. But we do know the following:

1. Testing markets - workplace, schools, prisons, elite sport and roadsides - are huge. As has been pointed out many times, the workplace testing market just in the USA is valued at $1.3 billion per annum
2. Despite current market size, testing markets are still growing rapidly throughout the world as pro-testing lobbies win the argument over anti-testing lobbies (the new Mexican schools testing project, the new Australian sports policy and roadside testing initiatives throughout the world are recent examples of this)
3. There is a growing migration from urine-based testing to oral testing - as the oral technology has improved and the comparative benefits of the latter become more widely recognised. The lack of an FDA-approved oral device is constraining this migration, at least in the US (due to risk management and insurance reasons)

There are three key areas of growth for HGR:

1. Gaining market share in the existing oral-based testing market. This is already happening with distributors moving some US workplace clients from other providers to Oraline (because of its better measurement accuracy and saliva transportability). This should escalate with FDA approval - as distributors will have even more persuasive arguments for changing their clients to Oraline

2. Gaining market share from testing programs currently using urine devices. This is happening already and is likely to accelerate once an FDA-approved product (ie Oraline) becomes available

3. Winning new markets as they emerge - as is happening with the Mexican schools program and Chinese workplaces . Success in these markets will provide good leverage into other markets (in Europe, Africa etc) as they emerge.

Anyone's guess as to figures. However, consider this. Winning just one tenth of one percent of just the US workplace market would be 130,000 tests - or more than $1m revenue pa which is greater than the latest full year result for all markets.

We are all interested in HGR because we see it working its way into a position to capitalise on these large and growing markets. I can't put figures on it, but I believe that, with current market developments, even modest success will be very rewarding to shareholders over the next 12 months or so. Blue sky for dramatic success!